The first quarter of 2021 was a wild ride, with the Nasdaq soaring to new highs in mid-February only to fall into a correction, down 10% from its highs, in just under a month. Meanwhile, the Dow and the S&P 500 climbed to records, as Wall Street rotated into cyclical sectors such as finance, energy, and other economic rebound plays.
The market movement reflects the optimism about the possibility of 6% or higher U.S. GDP growth in 2021 and the hope that people will be able to return to something closer to their normal in 2021 as the coronavirus vaccine is rolled out. The injection of trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy and the Fed’s easy money policy has also brought about the return of inflation worries that led to the flurry of bond selling.
Yet even with the 10-year U.S. Treasury above pre-pandemic levels at 1.75%, it remains well below the 3% that yields hit in 2018 and ultra-low by historical standards. This likely extends there is no alternative investing. And the market ended the first quarter on a high note, as the Nasdaq continues to chop around after bulls bought the dip on March 8, while the S&P 500 touched new highs on March 31.
Let’s also remember that the earnings picture continues to improve. All of this could mean that despite some of the recent volatility, investors with long-term horizons might want to buy beaten-down pandemic winners with strong growth outlooks at big discounts as we head into the second quarter (also read: The Return of Strong Earnings Growth)…
Snap Inc. SNAP
Snap has bolstered its social media app that became famous for its disappearing photos and videos. The company has rolled out far more video content and shows and has partnerships with Disney DIS, the NFL, celebrities like Kevin Hart, and more.
Snapchat’s Discover page has gained traction and it’s been in the booming mobile gaming market for roughly two years now. The company also constantly releases various augmented reality offerings and it launched its Spotlight feature late last year that aims to take on TikTok.
Snap’s beefed-up portfolio of entertainment offerings has attracted advertisers as more people disconnect from ad-supported legacy media in favor of Netflix NFLX and simply ignore more traditional online banner ads. Investors should also know that Snap has boasted that in the U.S. it reaches “more than 90% of 13 to 24 year-olds and more than 75% of 13 to 34 year-olds.” In fact, the company said that “over 90% of the U.S. Gen Z population watched Shows and publisher content in Q4 2020.”
Snap’s ability to reach this “unduplicated and hard-to-reach audience” has attracted Wall Street’s attention, as it continues to add users and monetize its growing platform, as Facebook FB and other internet giants face further government scrutiny. Snap topped our Q4 estimates in early February, with its daily active users up 22% year-over-year to 265 million. Overall, Snap’s FY20 revenue climbed 46% to $2.51 billion. This marked its third-straight year of roughly 45% sales growth, and its outlook remains impressive.
Zacks estimates call for Snap’s FY21 revenue to surge over 52% to reach $3.82 billion, with FY22 projected to climb another 45% to reach $5.53 billion. Meanwhile, it’s expected to soar from an adjusted loss of -$0.06 a share last year to +$0.12 in fiscal 2021, with 2022 set to skyrocket to +$0.57 a share.
The nearby chart showcases Wall Street’s recent love for the stock that had largely failed to impress since it went public in 2017. SNAP is up 370% in the past 12 months and 100% in the last six. But it got caught up in the wave of tech selling that hit nearly every high-flyer, with it down 25% from its late February records. This includes its 5% jump on Wednesday to close regular hours at $52.29 a share.
The stock also sits well below neutral levels in terms of RSI at 42. On the valuation front, Snap trades at a 33% discount to its own year-long highs in terms of forward 12-month sales. Snap has also consistently traded at a discount to fellow high-flyers Shopify’s SHOP 29.8X and Zoom Video’s ZM 23.4X.
Snap currently lands a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on some mixed earnings revisions activity. Yet, 19 of the 27 brokerage recommendations Zacks has for Snap are “Strong Buys.” And investors might want to consider buying the modern media platform that plays into overall smartphone addiction.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. PTON
Peloton is a high-end, high-tech stationary bike and treadmill firm that raced to popularity as gyms closed. Even as things return closer to normal by the summer as the vaccine is rolled out, it’s unclear how quickly people will run back to crowded gyms, particularly if they have grown accustomed to working out from home. And there is no reason why many of Peloton’s wealthier customers won’t simply choose to do both down the road.
Peloton was founded in 2012 and went public in the fall of 2019. The company currently sells different tiers of connected bikes and treadmills starting at $1,895 for the bike and $2,495 for the tread, with the new + offerings costing far more. The firm also allows users to make monthly payments to make it more attainable for many.
Perhaps most importantly, PTON makes money from its $39 per month All-Access Memberships. Meanwhile, people who don’t own Peloton equipment can pay $12.99 a month for a digital membership that allows them to take classes for indoor cycling, running, strength, and more. Plus, PTON was growing before the pandemic within a group of higher-end connected fitness products that includes Mirror, which athleisure giant Lululemon LULU bought for $500 million and many others—even Apple AAPL has jumped into the field.
Peloton in December agreed to buy commercial fitness-equipment company Precor Inc. for $420 million. The move is projected to help improve its manufacturing capacity as it has struggled to keep up with the massive pandemic-driven demand that caused long wait times for many customers. The deal is also expected to see it break into commercial spaces like hotels and condo buildings.
The company topped our Q2 fiscal 2021 estimates in early February, with its connected fitness subscriptions up 134% to roughly 1.67 million and paid digital subscriptions up 472% to 625,000. Meanwhile, its revenue climbed 128% to $1.1 billion. Looking ahead, Zacks estimates call for its Q3 revenue to climb 113%, with its full-year fiscal 2021 sales set to surge 125% to $4.10 billion, which would come on top of FY20’s 100% revenue expansion.
The company is then projected to grow its FY22 revenue by another 34% or $1.4 billion to reach $5.1 billion. At the bottom end of the income statement, PTON is expected to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.32 a share last year to +$0.30, with FY22 set to soar 180% to $0.84 a share.
Like SNAP, Peloton’s mixed EPS revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at the moment, but it has topped our bottom-line estimate by an average of 105% in the trailing three periods. And 19 of the 23 broker rating Zacks has are “Strong Buys.”
All of this growth has helped PTON stock soar 320% during the last year. Peloton’s performance includes a big pullback from its mid-January records and it closed Wednesday at $112.44 a share, or 33% below its highs. This downturn has made its valuation appear far stronger, with it trading at a slight discount to its Consumer Discretionary industry at 6.1X forward sales, despite its huge outperformance. It also trades at a discount to its own 7.2X median over the last year and LULU’s 7.4X and the stock sits underneath neutral RSI levels.
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