According to UOB Group’s FX Strategists, the AUD/USD could drop down around 0.7480 in the next weeks.
Observation for 24 hours: “Yesterday, we predicted a lower AUD, but we also predicted that ‘any decline is expected to encounter firm resistance near 0.7540.’ We also believed that “the next support at 0.7520 is unlikely to be threatened.” The subsequent weakening outperformed our expectations, with the AUD falling to 0.7508 before ending at 0.7513. While the AUD is oversold, there is still room for it to touch 0.7500 first. The next level of support, at 0.7480, is unlikely to be reached. A break of 0.7545 (minor resistance is at 0.7530) on the upside would imply that the current AUD downturn has stabilized.”
Within the next 1-3 weeks: “Since last Friday (25 June, spot at 0.7585), we’ve maintained that the AUD ‘is projected to trade within a 0.7520/0.7650 range.’ We were surprised by how quickly the Australian dollar fell below the bottom of our predicted range (overnight low of 0.7508). The AUD is projected to trade with a downward tilt around 0.7480 now that the bearish momentum has improved. Before additional decline may be predicted, the AUD must move clearly below 0.7480. As long as the AUD does not rise over 0.7575 in the next few days, the downward bias will remain intact.”
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