The U.S. economy appears likely to dodge a recession, but growing pessimism is lifting former president Donald Trump’s prospects for the 2024 presidential election.

Two quarters of negative growth is generally associated with a recession. U.S. GDP posted a 4.9% gain in the third quarter of 2023, but surveys of economic forecasters indicate growth will slip to less than 1% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and first half of 2024 but won’t go negative.


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