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Economists at Commerzbank analyze EUR outlook after the ECB hiked its key rate last Thursday and ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled that the ECB is now likely to have reached the end of the rate hike cycle.
In the coming days and weeks, there should be increasing clarity about the extent to which there may still be a willingness in the ECB’s monetary policy council to perhaps raise interest rates again. Or what conditions would have to be met for such a step. Such comments should tend to benefit the EUR, as the market currently seems to be betting on an end to the rate hike cycle, which could clear the way for rate cuts next year. Comments suggesting that rate cuts may still be a long way off would also be positive for the EUR.
However, it may also turn out that the Council members are largely in agreement that the end of the rate hike cycle has been reached. The market is then more likely to interpret this as a dovish stance by the ECB and the EUR could come under depreciation pressure.
In the short term, however, the focus is of course on the US Fed. Ahead of the rate decision on Wednesday the FX market will largely wait and see what surprises the Fed might have in store.
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