On June 21, 2021, in Paris, France, French police stroll down the street during the French Midsummer Festival of Music. Getty Images | Rafael Yaghobzadeh Entertainment | Getty Images LONDON, United Kingdom — The coronavirus delta variant, which was first detected in India, has already spread over the world, causing new outbreaks in nations such as the United Kingdom. There are also mounting signals that the number of cases in continental Europe is also on the rise. The EU is understandably concerned about the development of the extremely infectious delta variation, which, according to data, is 60 percent more transmissible than the alpha version first discovered in England, results in more hospitalizations, and affects vaccination efficacy marginally. Several European countries have tightened limits on visitors from the United Kingdom, but experts believe it’s only a matter of time until it catches on in mainland Europe — and there are already significant signs that it has. On Tuesday, French Health Minister Olivier Veran stated that the delta form now accounts for roughly 20% of Covid-19 cases in France, up from a previous estimate of 9-10% last week. The delta variety accounted for roughly 36% of cases in the week of June 15 – 20, up 15% from the week before, according to Germany’s public health organization, the Robert Koch Institute. According to a report by Deutsche Welle on Tuesday, Lothar Wieler, president of the RKI, told officials that the variety now accounts for more than half of all registered cases in Germany. Meanwhile, Italy’s national health institute reported on Friday that cases of Covid variants delta and kappa (a “variant of interest” according to the World Health Organization that is related to the delta variant) have increased in the past month, accounting for nearly 17% of all Covid cases in the country. Delta variant cases have also increased in Spain and Portugal, as well as Poland, Russia, Switzerland, and Turkey. Furthermore, the delta plus variant, which is a mutation of the delta mutation, has been seen in some parts of Europe. Continue reading: A novel mutation known as ‘delta plus’ has been discovered in the Delta Covid variant: Here’s everything you need to know about it. Is it too late or too little? Germany and France are among the countries that have placed quarantine restrictions on British visitors, and Berlin has gone even further, calling on the EU to adopt a united approach to putting British visitors to quarantine. Experts believe the move is a case of acting too little, too late. “I doubt if European countries, with their open economies and more limited border checks, quarantine measures, and tracking and tracing, will be able to push delta back for long… especially given that there is already extensive local circulation,” Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist and biostatistician at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, told CNBC Tuesday. He speculated that the true number of illnesses caused by the delta variant in Europe could be substantially larger than current estimates suggest. “I believe that 90 percent of confirmed cases in Portugal are now delta, with a significant geographic focus around Lisbon. Many other European countries, such as Spain, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, and the Netherlands, aren’t far behind, with over half of all diagnosed cases currently anticipated to be delt “”There,” he observed. Experts think that the delta variation already accounts for 95 percent of all new instances sequenced in the United Kingdom, and that where Britain goes, the United States and Europe will likely follow. According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the delta form will account for 90% of all Covid viruses circulating in the EU by the end of August. Vaccination as a last resort? If countries in Europe can distribute vaccines quickly enough, Covid immunization efforts could save the day. A study published in May by Public Health England found that having both doses of the Covid vaccinations manufactured by AstraZeneca-Oxford University and Pfizer-BioNTech (the vaccines most widely available in Europe) protects against the delta form. However, after only one dose, both vaccinations were much less effective. As a result, a race is now underway in Europe to fully vaccinate millions of people, notably the young, who have been among the last to receive the Covid vaccine. The young, unprotected, over-50s, and persons who have only received one dose of the Covid vaccine are the most vulnerable to infection by the delta version, according to data from England. KU “Vaccinating at maximum speed and asking people in particular risk groups to continue to exercise caution will likely be the main options now,” said Wenseleers of Leuven, “although more intensive border checks and tracking and tracing could help to buy some time until the vaccination campaign has progressed more, which will help to prevent resurgences.” The overall economy Trouble is already brewing in the EU over the forecast for the summer tourism season and whether to allow Brits and others into the region, especially because tourism is a significant component of the economies of a number of EU members, including Greece and Portugal. It’s also unclear how a potential fresh wave of delta-variant infections could influence the region’s overall economy and recovery, although economists are keeping a careful eye on it. In a report published Wednesday, Berenberg Bank’s chief economist, Holger Schmieding, wrote, “The Delta wave is rolling in.” “Recorded SARS-CoV-2 illnesses are supposedly starting to trend up in the Eurozone amid considerable regional variances, around seven weeks after the UK.” When asked if the “new wave” puts Berenberg’s above-consensus growth projections for the euro zone and the United Kingdom in jeopardy (it expects GDP growth of 4.7 percent in the euro zone and 7% in the United Kingdom this year), Schmieding said the forecasts would not be influenced significantly. “We believe it is unlikely that medical systems in the United Kingdom or on the continent would face such severe strains again, necessitating new major limits on economic activity to keep medical risks under control, thanks to rapid vaccination advancements… However, we must keep a close eye on the dangers.” Continue reading
