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M’sia on track to achieve GDP growth of 5.3% to 6.3%, but Zafrul warns of risks to recovery

2022-08-06T09:44:00+08:00August 6th, 2022|0 Comments

Tengku Zafrul: The risk of the US entering a recession, technical or not, makes the global outlook even bleaker. (Photo by Zahid Izzani Mohd Said/The Edge)

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 6): Malaysia is on the road to recovery in terms of headline economic numbers, but Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz has warned of risks to the recovery amid an uncertain global economic outlook.

He said the numbers speak for themselves as Malaysia had a strong first quarter this year, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5%, and is on track to achieve a GDP growth of 5.3% to 6.3% in 2022.

“Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.9% in both May and June, showing a declining trend for 14 consecutive months now,” he said in his opening keynote address at the Malaysian Student Leaders Summit XVI 2022 on Saturday (Aug 6).

Tengku Zafrul said Malaysia’s trade performance had also remained resilient, maintaining its growth momentum as trade data had shown double-digit growth for 16 consecutive months since February 2021.

“Following the systematic reopening of the economy, continued expansion of internal and external demand, and the reduction in unemployment, foreign investors appear to be more confident in Malaysia’s prospects.

“All these data, not to mention the return of traffic jams and packed eateries, suggest that our second-quarter GDP numbers may be strong, which will further validate our policies that have placed Malaysia on the right track towards recovery,” he said.

However, he said Malaysia is also facing risks and challenges to recovery, such as rising global inflation, as commodity prices continue to increase and supply chains disrupted due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

“Our inflation rate climbed to a one-year high of 3.4% in June, with food inflation at 6.1%,” he said, adding that the Government had managed to cushion the impact through subsidies and price caps on certain key goods.

Tengku Zafrul also noted that there is a slowdown in growth globally, following higher-than-expected inflation worldwide, especially in the US and major European economies, which had triggered tighter monetary policies.

A slowdown in China’s economy, in part due to its zero-Covid policies, and the spillover impact of the Russian-Ukraine war are also adding to the uncertainty.

“The International Monetary Fund has already lowered its growth projection for Malaysia to 5.1% from 5.6%, which is below our official projections of 5.3% to 6.3%.

“At this point, we remain optimistic that we will be able to stick to our official projections,” he said.

The finance minister noted that the US Federal Reserve’s cumulative rate hike of 225 basis points in total thus far had weakened numerous currencies, including the ringgit.

“The risk of the US entering a recession, technical or not, makes the global outlook even bleaker,” he said.

Tengku Zafrul also stressed that the risk of new Covid-19 variants and sub-variants remains present and Malaysia, together with the rest of the world, must be ready for the next global pandemic, and may need to focus more on preventive rather than curative measures.

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