For four reasons, according to natixis strategists, we should be concerned about the risk of a big rise in oil prices in the second half of 2021, in 2022, and even beyond. A big increase in oil costs would clearly have a negative impact on many countries’ economic growth.
“World activity is rebounding strongly, resulting in a significant increase in global oil demand.”
“The worldwide oil demand inertia caused by the lengthy lifespan of automobiles, aircraft, industrial equipment, power plants, and other vehicles.”
“For numerous years, there has been a lack of investment in exploration and production. In recent years, investment in exploration and production has declined, resulting in a reduction in oil supplies for several years.”
“There is strong pressure on private oil and gas companies to reduce their investments in fossil fuels (latest report from the International Energy Agency, investor pressure, etc. ), which will weaken their supply of oil, which will not be easily offset by national oil and gas production in producer countries.”
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