S&P 500 remains rangebound as we wait for Powell.
ADP employment data shows Fed hikes finally stalling the jobs market.
Limited gains likely though before Powell’s speech later Wednesday.

Equities snoozed across the finish line on Tuesday with little catalyst. The Dow closed completely flat almost to the tick. The NASDAQ was lower by 0.7%, and the S&P 500 was also barely changed. Energy (XLE) was the biggest winner as oil prices recovered. China reopening is good news for oil. Well, that is the assumption anyway!

This morning we wait for Powell later who may give this market some direction. ADP jobs data just out will give the Fed pause argument more wings, and doves are taking flight as we speak. The US Dollar has weakened, and equities moved higher on the data. Powell will have the final say though, and he has been notably unhappy with loosening financial conditions in the past. The second reading of US GDP is higher and confirms the US economy is resilient. This gives Powell plenty of room to hike further.

Powell will drive the market, so we can just identify the key levels to watch for. 3,946 is strong support, and below 3,900 (highlighted) is the medium-term pivot. Resistance sits at 4,502 from the 200-day moving average and 4,095 from the trendline. The extended target reads at 4,218 on any break higher, which comes from the gap on August 19. 3,946 is the short-term pivot, and remaining below leads to 3,900 and a likely extended move lower.

SPX daily chart

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