We read about it daily. Struggling industries still working to return to some version of normal.

Should we view hotels, restaurants, airlines, theaters, cruise lines and entertainment venues as stuck in a lower performing environment?

That question turns on what form of normal awaits us later this year and next.

There are two reasons to foresee a full recovery.

  • First, continuing developments to prevent and cure Covid-19. Issues like limited supply and unwillingness to get vaccinated are almost sure to disappear. Drug companies continue to ramp up, and vaccination requirements to be employed and have fun will cure reticence.
  • Second, customer demand for all those services was built on desirability. There is no reason to believe those desires have been eliminated. They are just postponed until conditions and operations can provide the benefits without the worries.

One way to see where things stand and the size of what could be is to examine employment in those industries. Here are the long-term graphs for the leisure, hospitality, arts, entertainment and recreation industries.

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Note the millions of employees currently missing. Their rehiring will easily wipe out the current excess unemployment. In addition, remember that with added business and employment, ancillary activities are used to support it.

We will continue to hear about long-term unemployment and struggles to reopen in select industries. However, gains will continue as companies, employees and customers make inroads into defeating the Covid-19 damage.

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