UKRAINE – 2021/06/18: In this photo illustration, Sunrun logo of a solar company is seen on a … [+] smartphone and a pc screen in the background. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
reached its 52-week high of $101 in January 2021, and has since dropped from that level. Further, the stock fell 5% in the past week, to around $45 currently. Sunrun reported Q2 2021 earnings at the start of August, with revenue coming in at $401 million, up significantly from $181 million in Q2 2020, driven by a rise in both customer agreements, and solar energy systems and products sales. However, rising COGS and operating expenses weighed on profitability, with operating loss expanding to $142 million in Q2 ’21 from $83 million for the same period last year. Despite a rise in the tax benefit, EPS dropped to -$0.20 from -$0.11 over this period.
However, after a 5% fall in a week, will Sunrun stock continue its downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a recovery in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, returns for Sunrun stock average 3% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 5% drop over the previous week (five trading days).
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding Sunrun stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Sunrun stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE ? try it yourself:
IF Sunrun stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days Sunrun stock moves an average of 3%, with an average 51.3% probability of a positive return over this period.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Sunrun Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for Sunrun stock higher after a drop?
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Answer: Consider two situations,
Case 1: Sunrun stock drops by 5% or more in a week
Case 2: Sunrun stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Sunrun stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
Sunrun stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 3% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 3.7% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Sunrun stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer: If you buy and hold Sunrun stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For Sunrun stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Sunrun after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Sunrun stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.