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According to former Singapore senior diplomat Bilahari Kausikan, Taiwan is the “most dangerous” flashpoint in the US-China relationship, although an open clash is unlikely. “Nuclear deterrence sustained the peace between the two principals during the 40-year-long Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. “I believe it will restore peace between the United States and China,” Kausikan said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “this coming Wednesday The possibility of a government using nuclear weapons to retaliate, according to nuclear deterrence theory, will dissuade an enemy state from attacking. Taiwan, a democratically self-governed island, is claimed by Beijing as a renegade province that must be restored with the mainland, using force if necessary. Taiwan has never been governed by China’s ruling Communist Party, which celebrates its 100th anniversary on Thursday. The United States has gotten closer to Taiwan in recent years, which has enraged China, which believes the island has no right to conduct its own diplomacy. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, a keen China observer, claimed the CCP’s “unfinished work” is to unite Taiwan with the mainland. He said that the Chinese military has been planning for years to ensure Taiwan’s “return,” and that if President Xi Jinping is re-elected as the party’s and country’s leader at the CCP conference late next year, China may act. After China abolished presidential term limits, Xi, who has been president since 2013, is anticipated to win a second term. “By the time we get to the late 2020s and into the 2030s, I think we’ll be moving into a period where China will be looking at its possibilities to leverage Taiwan back into a form of political union with China,” Rudd said on CNBC’s “Capital Connection” Wednesday. “And that, I believe, is when it becomes perilous for us all.” Other analysts have cautioned that the potential of a military conflict between the US and China over Taiwan is increasing. “Accidents can always happen,” said Kausikan, who is also the chairman of the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore. He did add, though, that both the United States and China will “do their utmost to contain such incidents if they should occur.” Kausikan previously served as the Permanent Representative of Singapore to the United Nations and the Permanent Secretary of Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. On Wednesday, the United States and Taiwan resumed long-stalled trade discussions. When former US President Barack Obama was in office, such discussions under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement were last undertaken. Taiwan is stated to be hoping that both sides can “gradually” work toward a trade agreement. President Joe Biden hasn’t stated if he’s interested in an agreement with the island, according to Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Asia program, who talked to CNBC before the meetings. “Taiwan is isolated,” she said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday. “We should be willing to negotiate trade accords with Taiwan, since it is our tenth largest trading partner.” As a member of the World Trade Organization, Taiwan has the ability to negotiate trade agreements with other nations, according to Glaser. She emphasized that Beijing had previously backed Taiwan’s economic accords with Singapore and New Zealand. However, trade talks between the US and Taiwan would irritate China, according to Glaser. Even yet, she continued, Beijing would not consider such talks as a sign of US support for Taiwan independence./nRead More

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