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FRANCE – 29 January 2021: The Tesla logo is shown on a Supercharger rapid battery… [+] charging station for the electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla Motors in this photo illustration. (Image courtesy of Karol Serewis/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images)
Getty Images/SOPA Images/LightRocket
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) is currently trading at around $690 per share, up nearly 11% in the last week (five trading days). Expectations surrounding Tesla’s Q2 delivery update, which is due later this week, a broader rally in electric vehicle stocks, and tweets by CEO Elon Musk indicating that the launch of updated versions of Tesla’s full self-driving software, as well as a subscription option, could be around the corner, have all likely contributed to the gains. However, news that the company will have to recall approximately 285,000 vehicles in China to remedy a problem with its cruise control software overshadowed the gains. The updates are very certainly going to be done “over the air,” without the automobiles having to visit a service center. So, will Tesla stock continue to rise in the weeks and months ahead, or would a correction be more likely? Tesla stock is expected to return 9.5 percent in the next month (21 trading days) after an 11 percent gain in the previous five trading days, according to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which finds trends in a company’s stock price data over the last ten years. The stock is also anticipated to outperform the S&P 500 in the coming month, with an expected return of 8.5 percent greater than the S&P 500.
But how do these figures vary if you choose to hold TSLA shares for a shorter or longer period of time? On the Trefis Machine Learning, you may test the response and many more combinations to see if the TSLA stock would rise following a dip or vice versa. You can evaluate the likelihood of recovery across time intervals of a quarter, month, or even a single day!
TRY THE MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE FOR YOURSELF:
IF TSLA stock moves -5 percent in 5 trading days, then it moves an average of 4.5 percent in the next 21 trading days, with a 55.3 percent chance of a positive return during that time.
Furthermore, given a -5 percent move in the stock over 5 trading days, it has historically seen an excess return of 2.5 percent over the next 21 trading days when compared to the S&P500, with a 50.8 percent probability of a positive excess return.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR YOU
TSLA Stock Movements: Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs, and Making Sense of Them:
Question 1: Is Tesla stock’s average return higher following a drop?
Consider the following two scenarios: Case 1: Tesla’s stock drops by 5% or more in a week.
Case 2: Tesla’s stock rises by at least 5% in a week.
Is the average return on Tesla stock after Case 1 or Case 2 higher in the following month?
TSLA stock performs better following Case 2, with an average return of 4.5 percent over the next month (21 trading days) versus an average return of 8.6 percent for Case 1 (where the stock had just experienced a 5 percent loss during the previous week).
In example, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1 percent in Case 1 and barely 0.5 percent in Case 2 over the next 21 trading days, according to our dashboard, which shows the average return for the S&P 500 after a decline or rise.
Use the Trefis machine learning engine to see how Tesla stock will react following a given gain or loss over time.
Question 2: Does it pay to be patient?
Answer: If you buy and hold Tesla shares, you may anticipate near-term swings to fade away over time, and a long-term favorable trend to favor you – at least if the company is otherwise healthy.
Overall, facts and Trefis’ machine learning engine estimates show that patience pays off in most stocks!
The following table shows the returns for TSLA stock over the next N days after a -5 percent shift over the previous 5 trading days, as well as the returns for the S&P500:

Trefis Average Return
Question 3: If you wait a bit following a climb, what is the average return?
Answer: As mentioned in the preceding question, the average return after a rise is lower than after a decrease. Surprisingly, if a stock has increased in the recent few days, you should avoid short-term investments in most cases – albeit TSLA appears to be an exception to this rule.
The table below shows TSLA’s returns over the next N days after a 5% shift over the previous 5 trading days, as well as the S&P500’s returns:

Trefis Average Return
By adjusting the variables in the charts above, you can test the trend for Tesla stock for yourself.
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Here you may find all of Trefis’ Featured Analyses and Trefis Data./nRead More

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