UKRAINE – 2021/05/19: In this photo illustration the Raymond James logo of an US investment banking … [+] company is seen on a smartphone and a pc screen. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Raymond James Financial stock (NYSE: RJF) lost 1.9% in the last five trading days and currently trades close to $136 per share. Raymond James Financial is a financial holding company that provides services such as investment management, sales & trading, corporate and retail banking, etc. Its stock has gained almost 43% YTD, as compared to the 19% rise in S&P500.
The company recently approved a three-for-two stock split in the form of a 50% stock dividend. It means that its shareholders will receive one additional share of RJF for every two shares of RJF owned by them. Further, shareholders on record as of 9th September will be eligible for the process, which is to be completed on 21st September. Additionally, the firm has decreased the dividend amount per share from $0.39 to $0.26 per share to compensate for the increased number of shares.
But will RJF stock continue its downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a rise in the stock more likely? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data for the last ten years, returns for RJF stock average close to 3.1% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing a 1.9% drop over the last one week (five trading days) period. Also, there is a 69% chance that the stock will give positive returns over the next one-month period.
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding RJF stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning to test Raymond James Financial stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF RJF stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, RJF stock moves an average of 2.7 percent with a 68.3% probability of positive returns.
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Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Raymond James Financial Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for Raymond James Financial Stock higher after a drop?
Consider two situations,
Case 1: Raymond James Financial stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Raymond James Financial stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Raymond James Financial stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
RJF stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 2.7% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.3% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Raymond James Financial stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
If you buy and hold Raymond James Financial stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For RJF stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
RJF’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Raymond James Financial stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
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