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The stock price of IDEXX Laboratories (NASDAQ: IDXX), an animal healthcare company, has seen a rise of 12% in the last twenty-one trading days, while it is up a large 90% over the last one year. This rise can be attributed to the multiple positive developments for the company. Firstly, the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in an increase in pet ownership, as people spent more time at home. In fact, pet ownership in the U.S. rose to 70% of households in 2020 (vs. 67% in 2019), marking an all-time high. [1] This has boded well for animal health companies, such as IDEXX, which saw its sales surge 24% y-o-y in Q1 2021.

Last year, IDEXX launched its new hematology analyzer – ProCyte One – which can provide blood results as early as five minutes. More importantly, the company stated that clinics don’t have to pay the upfront cost for the device, but rather pay on a per-test basis. The company started shipping ProCyte One in Q1 this year, and it will likely see higher penetration in clinics, given its utility as well as the financial feasibility.

IDEXX recently announced the acquisition of New Zealand based ezyVet, a cloud-based software solutions company for veterinary practices. This acquisition will help IDEXX expand its practice information management system options for veterinary hospitals and other related institutions. The company earlier provided two PIMS offerings – Cornerstone Software, and Neo Software, and ezyVet will now be the third in the list and bolster the company’s software revenues going forward. IDEXX’s revenues from veterinary software, services, and diagnostic imaging systems stood at $44 million in Q1 2021, accounting for 6% of the company’s total sales, and reflecting a 10% y-o-y growth.

While there have been some positive developments for the company of late, now that IDXX stock has seen a rise of 12% in twenty-one trading days, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise in IDXX stock over the next month. Out of 227 instances in the last ten years that IDEXX stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 10% or more, 148 of them resulted in IDXX stock rising over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 148 out of 227, or about 65% chance of a rise in IDXX stock over the coming month. See our analysis on IDEXX Laboratories Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten year data

  1. After moving 2.3% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next 5 days on 57% of the occasions.
  2. After moving 4.8% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next 10 days on 58% of the occasions
  3. After moving 12.0% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next 21 days on 65% of the occasions

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