UKRAINE – 2021/07/13: In this photo illustration, Repligen Corporation logo is seen on a smartphone … [+] and a pc screen. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The stock price of Repligen (NASDAQ: RGEN), a U.S.-based life sciences company involved in production of materials used in the manufacture of biological drugs, has seen a 12% drop over the last twenty-one trading days. The company last month announced the acquisition of Avitide – a privately held chromatography developer – for $150 million. The acquisition is expected to strengthen Repligen’s offerings with resin solutions for gene therapies. The company expected $10 million incremental revenue from this deal in 2022. RGEN stock reached its all-time high of around $327 just after the announcement, but profit-booking at higher levels resulted in RGEN stock falling to levels of $259 currently. Note that despite the recent fall, RGEN stock is up nearly 50% over the last year.

However, now that RGEN stock has seen a fall of 12% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a good chance of a rise in RGEN stock over the next month. Out of 249 instances in the last ten years that RGEN stock saw a twenty-one day fall of 12% or more, 171 of them resulted in RGEN stock rising over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 171 out of 249, or about 69% chance of a rise in RGEN stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Repligen Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.

So, if this follows historical performance, it is likely that RGEN stock will rise to higher levels going forward. Also, Repligen Stock Return summarizes RGEN stock performance and chances of its rise or decline, among other metrics that matter.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data

After moving -5% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 59% of the occasions.
After moving -16% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 73% of the occasions
After moving -12% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 69% of the occasions.

Repligen Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

Five-Day Return: MTEM highest at 7%; RGEN lowest at -5.2%
Ten-Day Return: UTHR highest at 0.05%; RGEN lowest at -16%
Twenty-One Day Return: MTEM highest at 9.8%; WAT lowest at -18%


21 Day Return

While RGEN stock can see a rebound after the recent fall, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for AMD vs Etsy.

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