Real estate investment trust (REIT) Healthpeak Properties (PEAK) specializes in senior housing, life science, and medical offices, with over 600 hospitals scattered across the country. Despite a 10.4% gain in the last three months, PEAK is entering a historically bearish period, an even more concerning signal considering the company’s earnings report looms large next week.
Per data from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Healthpeak Properties is the worst stock on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to own in February in the last decade. The equity finished the month lower in nine of the past 10 years, averaging a loss of 7.2%. That’s good for worst on the table below by a wide margin, which also happens to include six other REITs.
Based on PEAK’s current perch at $18.63, another move of this magnitude would put the shares back below their year-to-date breakeven level. Longer term, the specialized REIT is down 32.1% in the last 12 months, while its 52-week moving average turned away the last two rallies in 2023, the most recent coming last month.
Healthpeak reports earnings before the open on Tuesday, Feb. 6. Like most stable REIT’s, Healthpeak’s average post-earnings move in the last eight quarters is a incremental 1.6%. But in the last two years, PEAK has moved lower after earnings six times. This time around, the options market – despite minimal volume – is pricing in a larger-than-usual post-earnings swing of 5.6%. With technical troubles above, seasonality trends ahead, and earnings on the way, it may be worth taking a flier on PEAK’s next leg lower.
