SINGAPORE : Asian shares slid on Thursday after a surprise interest rate hike by Bank of Canada brought back fears that U.S. rates could stay higher for longer and the Federal Reserve could remain hawkish when it meets next week.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.48 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 1 per cent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index eased 0.29 per cent.
The downbeat mood looked set to continue in Europe, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures off 0.30 per cent, German DAX futures losing 0.31 per cent and FTSE futures 0.06 per cent lower.
Canada surprised markets on Wednesday by hiking its overnight rate to a 22-year high of 4.75 per cent, with traders expecting another increase next month to cool an overheating economy and stubbornly high inflation.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) had been on hold since January to assess the impact of previous hikes.
The move from the BoC comes after Australia also stunned markets by hiking interest rates earlier this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia later warned of more rate hikes to temper rising pricing pressures.
Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB, said the steps from BoC and RBA highlight that central banks aren’t done with the hiking cycle. “Next week’s U.S. CPI will be pivotal for whether the Fed goes in June, or skips as widely telegraphed.”
Consumer inflation data on Tuesday is expected to show prices rose by 0.30 per cent in May.
Markets are now pricing in a 64 per cent chance of the Fed standing pat next week, compared with 78 per cent just a day earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Traders are pricing in a 25 basis point hike in July.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed to not raise rates at its June 13-14 meeting, but a significant minority expects at least one more hike this year.
More than 90 per cent of economists, 78 of 86, polled during June 2-7 said the Federal Open Market Committee would hold its federal funds rate at 5.00 per cent-5.25 per cent.
China shares eased 0.12 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.57 per cent.
Data on Wednesday showed May exports in China slumped 7.5 per cent year-on-year, the biggest decline since January and far below the 0.4 per cent decline analysts expected.
“The weak export numbers will have observers looking for a new round of policy stimulus,” Saxo Markets strategists said.
Treasury yields were stable in early Asian hours after surging overnight after the move from Canada’s central bank.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.1 basis points to 3.795 per cent, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 0.5 basis points to 3.947 per cent.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 1.7 basis points at 4.567 per cent.
In the currency market, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, eased 0.038 per cent, with the euro up 0.09 per cent to $1.0707.
The yen strengthened 0.22 per cent to 139.80 per dollar after revised data showed Japan’s economy grew more than initially thought in January-March.
The Canadian dollar rose 0.08 per cent to 1.34 per dollar, while Turkey’s lira hit a record low against the dollar as the newly re-elected government appeared to loosen stabilising measures after signalling a pivot to more orthodox policies.
U.S. crude futures fell 0.22 per cent to $72.37 per barrel and Brent was at $76.76, down 0.25 per cent on the day.
Gold prices steadied on Thursday following a 1 per cent drop in the previous session, with spot gold up 0.3 per cent at $1,945.89 an ounce.
