Economists forecast initial jobless claims to increase from 210k to 214k in the week ending March 30.
With the US labor market in focus, investors should monitor FOMC member commentary. FOMC members Thomas Barkin, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, and Adriana Kugler are on the calendar to speak. Reaction to the recent US economic indicators could move the dial.
Short-Term Forecast
Near-term AUD/USD trends depend on the US Jobs Report and Fed speakers. A hotter-than-expected US Jobs Report could sink bets on a June Fed rate cut. However, forward guidance from the Fed could influence lasting market reaction to the numbers. Hawkish Fed chatter could tilt monetary policy divergence toward the US dollar.
AUD/USD Price Action
Daily Chart
The AUD/USD hovered above the 50-day EMA while remaining below the 200-day EMA, sending bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.
An Aussie dollar break above the $0.65760 resistance level and the 200-day EMA would support a move toward the $0.66500 handle. Selling pressure may intensify at the $0.65760 resistance level. The 200-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.
Aussie stats, US jobless claims, and Fed chatter need consideration.
Conversely, an AUD/USD break below the 50-day EMA could support a fall toward the $0.64582 support level.
Given a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 53.31, the AUD/USD could move to the $0.66500 handle before entering overbought territory.
