US Economic Calendar: US GDP and Jobless Claims
On Thursday, April 25, US GDP numbers for Q1 2024 will garner investor interest. Economists forecast the US economy to expand by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter. The economy grew by 3.4% in Q4 2023. Hotter-than-expected numbers could further reduce investor expectations of a September Fed rate cut.
Despite softer-than-expected Services PMI numbers, economic indicators continue to signal a robust US economy. A higher-for-longer Fed rate path could impact private consumption and cool the US economy. Private consumption contributes over 60% to the US economy.
The CME FedWatch Tool reflected the shift in sentiment toward the Fed rate path. On Wednesday, April 24, the chances of the Fed holding interest rates steady stood at 29.6%. On March 22, 2024, the probability of the Fed standing pat in September stood at 2.6%.
Other stats include pending home sales, trade data, and weekly jobless claims. Barring a spike in US jobless claims, the numbers will likely play second fiddle to the GDP figures.
Short-Term Forecast
Near-term AUD/USD trends will hinge on the US GDP data and Personal Income and Outlays Report (Fri). Higher-than-expected US GDP numbers and sticky inflation could further impact investor bets on a September Fed rate cut. Nevertheless, producer price numbers from Australia will influence the RBA rate path and policy divergence.
AUD/USD Price Action
Daily Chart
The AUD/USD remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming the bearish price signals.
An Aussie dollar move through the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the 200-day EMA and the $0.65760 resistance level. A break above the $0.65760 resistance level would bring the $0.66 handle into play.
US GDP and jobless claims figures need consideration.
Conversely, an AUD/USD drop below the $0.64500 handle would bring the $0.64582 support level into play. A fall through the $0.64582 support level could give the bears a run at the $0.62713 support level.
Given a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 49.03, the AUD/USD could drop to the $0.63500 handle before entering oversold territory.
