Despite fading bets on multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts, investors remain hopeful of a September rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a 25-basis point September Fed rate cut stood at 45.9% this morning.
Short-Term AUD/USD Forecast
Near-term AUD/USD trends will hinge on Australian retail sales figures, US labor market data, and the US Federal Reserve. Better-than-expected Australian retail sales could raise investor bets on an RBA rate hike. A more hawkish RBA rate path could tilt monetary policy divergence toward the Aussie dollar.
AUD/USD Price Action
Daily Chart
The AUD/USD sat above the 50-day EMA while remaining below the 200-day EMA, sending bullish near-term but bearish longer-term price signals.
An Aussie dollar break above the 200-day EMA and the $0.65760 resistance level would support a return to the $0.66 handle.
RBA rate hike speculation, market risk sentiment, and the US economic calendar need consideration.
Conversely, an AUD/USD drop below the 50-day EMA would bring the $0.64582 support level into play.
Given a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 54.41, the AUD/USD may move to the $0.66 handle before entering overbought territory.
