Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, suggested the Australian economy could expand by around 4.8% this year.
“The Australia economy rose 1.8% q/q in the first quarter, higher than expectations for a 1.5% q/q reading, but a slower pace of growth than the previous quarter (when it rose a revised 3.2% q/q) Nonetheless, this would see the Australian economy recovering to above pre-pandemic levels.”
“The economic rebound has been underpinned by Australia’s ability to contain the COVID-19 situation, boosting consumer and business confidence. But a potential risk to the outlook is the country’s sluggish rollout of vaccine, which saw the second-most populous state of Victoria plunged into a lockdown on 27 May after the state reported its first locally transmitted COVID-19 cases in nearly three months early last week, forcing its near seven million residents to remain home except for essential business.”
“Some pandemic support has also now been withdrawn, such as loan repayment deferrals and the government’s JobKeeper wage subsidy that expired just before the end of the first quarter.”
“Looking ahead, we continue to see the Australian economy transitioning beyond the rebound phase to a more normal rate of growth, mindful that economic support is still coming from both fiscal and monetary policy. We have revised up our 2021 full-year GDP forecast to 4.8% on the back of these figures, but our forecast of 3.2% for 2022 remains unchanged.“
