■ Buoyed by strong sales growth from department stores, we forecast Handsome’s offline sales to climb 9.4% in FY21F (vs. -12% in FY20). ■ An increase in the proportion of online sales should improve the company’s overall OP margin in FY21F/FY22F (+9.4%/+9.9% vs. +8.5% in FY20).
■ Adi Sarana Armada Express delivery arm, Anteraja, contributed 23% of revenue in FY20, up nearly six times in less than 2 years, and recorded gross profit in 4Q20. ■ Anteraja is on pace to contribute more than 50% of ASSA’s revenue by FY22F, at 34% 3Y CAGR, reaching BE and boosting ROE starting in FY21F.
Domestic pax is strengthening, with positive forward indications from domestic carriers. Timing of recovery of the more valuable international pax is uncertain. Forecast changes and valuation roll-forward lift our 12 month Target Price by 17 cps to $7.03ps. ADD retained, given 12 month potential TSR of c.17% and 5yr IRR of c.9% pa. In the next 12 months we expect line-of-sight to re-commencement of distributions, benefitting the share price as income-oriented investors return to the stock.
Another consistent and firm quarterly result from SXY in 3Q21, as it builds on its track record as a capable low-cost onshore gas producer. Above-nameplate production from Roma North (19tj/d v 16tj/d) and ramping up Atlas delivered strong group gas sales of 4.6PJ (vs MorgE 4.5PJ). 3Q21 sales revenue A$35.9m (vs MorgE A$36m), average gas price A$6.8/GJ. Roma North expansion by 1Q’FY22 with Atlas expansion to follow once gas contracted to support capex.
Overall a reasonable 1Q21 operational result from Rio Tinto, with lower iron ore shipments and mined copper production as expected. Weather impacted RIO’s operations in 1Q21, in particular its flagship iron ore business in the Pilbara where travel restrictions also created a labour shortage.
Excluding acquisitions (PARS, XPL), HUB reported 3Q21 FUA of A$24.4bn, up 11% for the quarter and up 62% on the pcp. Including acquisitions, HUB now has A$35.6bn of custody FUA and A$15.8bn of non-custody (PARS) FUA.
Overall, we saw key growth metrics delivered in 3Q21 as robust, with domestic annuity sales (A$1.38bn) up 400% on pcp and life net book growth of 9%. Strong growth metrics, however, were overshadowed by NPBT guidance being lowered to the bottom end of the target range (A$390m – A$440m).
Afterpay touch released its 3Q21 business update to the market. Group sales of A$5.2bn were up ~100% on pcp (down 9% sequentially), while group customers and merchants were both up ~75% on pcp (+11%-15% on 2Q21 respectively). Management noted that group margins remain firm and loss rates remain below historical levels.
■ Perusahaan Gas Negara reached a mutual understanding with KESDM, and may receive gas price cut compensation. Meanwhile, it still has outstanding tax disputes. ■ In a blue sky scenario, its equity valuation could be Rp2,200/share. In a bear case scenario, its equity valuation could be Rp950/share.
The 1Q disappointed our expectations on price realisations and costs, and we infer a 1Q cash burn of +$50m (ex-asset sales & receivables unwind). Our base case forecasts now infer that CRN will require debt covenant waivers to be extended beyond Sep-30.