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Boston Beer Company logo (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston Beer Company)
The stock of Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) has lost more than 12% in the last month and now trades at $959. This reduction was primarily due to concerns that hard seltzer’s growth had peaked. Over the last few years, hard seltzer has experienced triple-digit growth, which has maintained even during the pandemic. The popularity of hard seltzer has resulted in a swarm of new brands, however Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw and Boston Beer’s Truly have a combined market share of almost 70%. SAM’s stock rose 30 percent between January and April 2021 as a result of the category’s expansion. However, the price has been dropping since then, owing to certain analysts’ belief that hard seltzer growth has peaked, prompting a few hedge funds to reduce their position to SAM stock. Consumers stocked up on hard seltzer and other alcoholic beverages while cooped up in their houses, resulting in strong sales gains. Hard seltzer, on the other hand, doesn’t have nearly as much traction on-premise as it does in packaged goods stores and the like now that people are returning to bars and restaurants. SAM’s stock has dropped 13% in the last month as a result of this. Will Boston Beer’s stock continue to fall in the next months, or is a recovery more likely? Returns for SAM stock average close to 6% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period, according to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which finds trends in a company’s stock price data for the last ten years after a 12 percent loss in the preceding one-month (21 trading days). But how do these figures vary if you want to own SAM stock for a shorter or longer period of time? On the Trefis Machine Learning, you may test the response and many other combinations to see if SAM stock would rise following a decline and vice versa. You can evaluate the likelihood of recovery across time intervals of a quarter, month, or even a single day!
TRY THE MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE FOR YOURSELF:
IF SAM stock moves -5 percent over five trading days, THEN SAM stock moves an average of 3.3 percent over the next 21 trading days, with a 57 percent chance of a positive return in the next month.

Trefis Average Return
Making Sense of SAM Stock Movements: Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs, and Making Sense of SAM Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the Boston Beer Company stock’s average return higher following a drop?
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR YOU
Answer:
Consider the following two scenarios: Case 1: The stock of Boston Beer Company decreases by 5% or more in a week.
Case 2: The stock of Boston Beer Company rises by 5% or more in a week.
Is the average return on Boston Beer Company shares higher after Case 1 or Case 2 in the following month?
After Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), SAM stock performs better, with an average return of 3.3 percent over the next month (21 trading days) vs 3.2 percent for Case 2 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week).
In example, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1 percent in Case 1 and barely 0.5 percent in Case 2 over the next 21 trading days, according to our dashboard, which shows the average return for the S&P 500 after a decline or rise.
Use the Trefis machine learning engine to understand how Boston Beer Company stock is likely to react following any specific gain or loss over time.
Question 2: Does it pay to be patient?
Answer: If you buy and hold Boston Beer Company shares, you may anticipate near-term swings to fade away with time, and a long-term favorable trend to favor you – at least if the company is otherwise healthy.
Overall, facts and Trefis’ machine learning engine estimates show that patience pays off in most stocks!
The following table shows the returns for SAM stock over the next N days after a -5 percent move over the previous 5 trading days, as well as the returns for the S&P500:

Trefis Average Return
Question 3: If you wait a bit following a climb, what is the average return?
Answer: As mentioned in the preceding question, the average return after a rise is lower than after a decrease. Surprisingly, if a company has increased in the recent few days, you should avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although SAM stock looks to be an exception to this general rule.
The table below shows SAM’s returns over the next N days after a 5% shift over the previous 5 trading days, as well as the S&P500’s returns:

Trefis Average Return
By adjusting the variables in the charts above, you can test the trend for Boston Beer Company stock for yourself.
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Here you may find all of Trefis’ Featured Analyses and Trefis Data./nRead More

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