Ernesto Distefano/Getty Images for goop
Athletica was a pandemic darling, as consumers flocked to its comfortable workout gear in 2020. However the stock hasn’t been so successful this year. Cowen & Co. says that offers a buying opportunity.
Analyst
John Kernan
reiterated an Outperform rating on lululemon (ticker: LULU) Tuesday and raised his price target to $392 from $385.
The move comes as valuation metrics for the shares—its price to earnings; enterprise value to sales; and enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—have all “contracted meaningfully” from the peaks set in July 2020, he writes. And he thinks there’s room for upside for first-quarter sales and profits.
Kernan is modeling for lululemon to earn 99 cents a share in its fiscal first quarter, up from his prior estimate of 91 cents and above the 90 cent consensus estimate. He also thinks that the company can record revenue of $1.16 billion, compared with guidance of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, bolstered by strong same-store sales.
He admits that supply chain and global freight issues remain headwinds for lululemon—and other retailers. That likely will prevent the company from raising full-year guidance when it reports earnings later this week, he writes. That said, the company does have a pathway to earning $11 a share in the future—up from the consensus estimate of $6.47 for this year—thanks to a compound annual growth rate in the mid- to high-teens for sales, and margin expansion, the analyst says. He’s also modeling for lululemon’s free cash flow to climb to $1.3 billion by fiscal 2024.
Lululemon is up 0.5% to $324.83 in recent trading. The shares have fallen 7.2% year to date, although they’re up 4.7% in the past 12 months.
The shares slid following its prior earnings report, which came in ahead of expectations but included subdued guidance.
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