India and China will likely lead Asia’s post-pandemic recovery, in light of rapid vaccination rollouts and improving global economic activity, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a new report.
“India, which is battling its worst coronavirus outbreak, is expected to grow 11.0% this year after shrinking by 8.0% in 2020. Growth of 7.0% is projected for 2022.”
“Even with the current severe outbreak, growth will be high in large part because of last year’s big recession in India.”
“But we do flag the downside risk from the current severe outbreak. It is a risk [and] it has implications not just for India but for South Asia more broadly and even for developing Asia. The outlook will be reviewed in July.”
“Developing Asia as a whole is expected to rebound with 7.3% growth this year, before moderating to a 5.3% expansion in 2022, the bank said. The region shrank by 0.2% last year.”
“China, the region’s largest economy, is on course for an 8.1% expansion in 2021 due to surge in private consumption and exports, before slowing down to 5.5% in 2022 in line with its long-term trend.”
“Myanmar’s economy to contract by 9.8% this year after a 3.3% expansion in 2020 “
“The Philippines, which last year shrank by 9.6% — the worst economic performance in Southeast Asia — will likely grow by 4.5% this year and 5.5% next. Thailand, which last year saw a 6.1% contraction, is set to grow 3.0% this year before expanding further by 4.5% in 2022.”
“Indonesia, the sub-regions largest economy, is expected to grow 4.5% this year and 5.0% next. It contracted 2.1% in 2020.”
