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Technical Analysis, Crude Oil, OPEC+, DOE – Talking Points: Despite an uptick in market sentiment, crude oil prices remained low. The commodity is being weighed down by uncertainty over OPEC+ production. WTI closed below the 20-day SMA, revealing a probable 2020 trendline. Crude oil prices have been trending lower for the previous 24 hours, extending a peak that began on July 6th when WTI hit its highest level since the peak of 2018. This comes as a protracted debate among OPEC+ members about the state of supply curbs eased in August. As a result, markets may be pricing in some concern about the cartel’s ability to cooperate and coordinate in the future. Crude oil prices fell in lockstep with global stock market losses after the FOMC meeting minutes were released. While the document indicated and reaffirmed that policymakers may envision two rate hikes by the end of 2023, the pace of asset purchases may remain unchanged for the time being. This is likely to have lifted market sentiment, causing the S&P 500 to rise. Growth-linked oil prices, on the other hand, stayed low, which was quite telling. WTI may persist in this downward trend until more progress from OPEC+ countries, particularly between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is apparent. Once a result, crude oil may struggle to profit on Asia-Pacific markets’ positive tone as European and North American trade begins. The impending weekly inventory report from the Department of Energy (DoE) is also being watched. The American Petroleum Institute (API) predicted an 8 million barrel draw in the previous week based on preliminary assessments. If there is still uncertainty about OPEC+ output, a drop in inventories could provide some relief for oil prices. Technical Analysis of Crude Oil WTI closed below the near-term 20-day Simple Moving Average on a technical level (SMA). This has revealed the possibility of increased support since November. In the event of more losses from here, the latter might re-establish the main focus to the upside. Otherwise, the 2018 high of 76.88 serves as key resistance. TradingView was used to create a 4-hour chart for WTI. Daniel Dubrovsky is a strategist for DailyFX.com. Use the comments area below to reach out to Daniel, or follow him on Twitter at @ddubrovskyFX./nRead More

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