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Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Soci?t? G?n?rale, analyzes EUUR/USD ahead of US CPI data for May, which are a prelude to tomorrow’s FOMC policy announcement.
Energy drives the headline rate and I suspect that the FX market will take its cue from the monthly Core figure: 0.3% (helped by lower rent inflation?) encourages talk of the Fed pausing tomorrow and feeds speculation that maybe we are at the peak after all. 0.5% increases fear of a hike tomorrow and barring that, at least one more hike thereafter. And at the margin, we’ll care about the decimal place, too.
EUR/USD will probably track any shift in Fed pricing. If we start to doubt the Fed will hike in July, EUR/USD can consolidate above 1.08 and start heading back towards 1.10, while the Dollar drifts lower across the board. Whereas a 0.5% monthly Ccore gain would do the opposite.
From here, getting EUR/USD back to 1.15 in H2 probably requires the ECB to deliver at least 50 bps more hikes than the Fed, as per our economists’ forecasts.
See – US CPI Banks Preview: Headline inflation is moderating, but underlying persists
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