The EUR/USD pair has closed below the confirmed uptrend from the bottom of 2020 at 1.1862, with the next short-term supports around 1.1824 and 1.1767. Even if payrolls miss, key resistance is predicted at 1.1976/2001, which Credit Suisse economists expect to cap.” The EUR/USD has weakened further ahead of today’s NFP report, closing decisively below the important uptrend from March last year and the recent low at 1.1862/47, raising the risk of a broader trend turn. Weekly MACD is also getting closer to turning outright bearish for the first time since 2020, adding to the risk of a broader trend turn.”
“The market is challenging the 78.6 percent retracement of the March/May surge immediately below at 1.1824, which is the next short-term support. A break below this level is likely, resulting in a move to the lower end of the converging range, now at 1.1767. Medium-term support is still at 1.1703/1.1695, with only a weekly closing below this level indicating a medium-term trend change.”
“Resistance in the near term is at 1.1911/24. The more key barrier is back at 1.1976/2001, which we believe will hold today, even if the NFP misses. Only a close look above here might suggest more sideways movement.”/n
