Price, Chart, and Analysis of the Euro (EUR/USD) The EUR/USD is still teetering on the edge of a drop. The Strategy Review of the European Central Bank (ECB) is now crucial. At 11:00 GMT today, the European Central Bank will release its much-anticipated monetary policy plan review, which will be followed by a press conference and Q&A session with President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos at 12:30 GMT. The central bank’s inflation objective is expected to be clarified in the review, with the phrase “below but near to 2 percent” being replaced with “inflation of 2 percent.” The ECB may additionally state that the 2% target is an average target and/or specify a timetable for watching inflation movements before reacting. The ECB is also anticipated to provide additional information about its climate change policy and any adjustments to its bond-buying program. The outcome of the review will likely determine the direction of the single currency in the months and years ahead, particularly if the central bank maintains its ultra-accommodative monetary policy. See the DailyFX Calendar for all market-moving economic data and events. The EUR/USD has been on a six-week losing streak, with the pair hitting a new three-month low on Wednesday. The chart set-up remains bearish, as evidenced by the rapid drop in the 20-day simple moving average (red line), with no support until the swing bottom of 1.1704 on March 31. Around 1.1695, this level is just over the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement line. Below this level, horizontal support from the swing low of November 4 at 1.16025 can be found. Daily Price Chart for EUR/USD (June 2020 – July 8, 2021) According to retail trader data, 58.87 percent of traders are net-long, with a long-to-short ratio of 1.43 to 1. The number of traders who are net-long is down 4.64 percent from yesterday and up 2.93 percent from last week, while those who are net-short is down 0.79 percent from yesterday and down 3.29 percent from last week. We usually take the opposite side of popular sentiment, and the fact that traders are net-long on EUR/USD signals that prices may continue to decline. Positioning is less net-long today than it was yesterday, but more net-long than it was last week. We have a further mixed EUR/USD trading inclination as a result of current sentiment and previous adjustments. What are your thoughts on the EUR/USD? Bullish or bearish? You can contact the author on Twitter @nickcawley1 or by the form at the bottom of this article.
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