In June, tourists on a ferry in Croatia. As the limits on Covid are eased, tourism in Europe is projected to pick up.
Getty Images/Elisabetta Zavoli
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As a result of successful Covid-19 immunization initiatives and lowering infection rates, European tourism is expected to pick up again. While Covid variants and waning consumer confidence mean that nothing is certain—the picturesque seaside village of Kokkari on the Greek island of Samos is unusually quiet for this time of year—the opportunities for investors in Europe are with hotels, car rental companies, and airport operators that have strong prepandemic business models and have weathered Covid in good financial shape.
Some countries’ economic health will be dependent on the recovery. In Spain, tourism accounts for about 15% of GDP, whereas in Greece, it accounts for more than 20%. While tourism to southern Europe is expected to increase this year over 2020, it will still be 50 percent to 60 percent lower than in 2019, according to Chris Hare, an economist at HSBC, who estimates that tourism will contribute one to two percentage points to GDP in southern European countries this year.
Concerning Europe’s Resurrection
Northern Europe has a better recovery narrative. While not as popular as the south of France and Italy, tourism in the Nordic countries has been less affected. According to Eurostat data, the total number of nights spent in tourist accommodations in Denmark fell just 36% from April 2020 to March 2021, whereas Norway and Sweden saw a 40% drop. There is a hidden gem.
Group of Scandic Hotels
(ticker: SHOT.Sweden), a company with 280 hotels in the Nordic region, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Scandic shares could recover to 40 Swedish kronor ($4.70) from its recent low of 35.38 kronor, according to Deutsche Bank, due to permanent rent reductions on leased properties and a revival in hotel demand.
Market Data for Europe
Scandic’s stock, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo, is worth 15.3 times estimated earnings in 2023. “Hotel demand has increased in all markets as a result of the progressive lifting of restrictions associated to the Covid-19 pandemic,” Scandic stated in a June statement. In all markets, domestic leisure travel is on the rise.” Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based Frankfurt-based
Fraport
(FRA.Germany). While it operates out of 31 airports around the world, Europe accounts for the majority of its annual revenue. Frankfurt Airport, which accounted for 51.8 percent of group sales in 2019, is its major business. Germany will account for 73 percent of Fraport’s operations in 2020. Frankfurt is a hub for 100 airlines and served 70.6 million passengers in 2019 (down from 18.8 million in 2020). In a May earnings statement, Fraport claimed that passenger traffic in Frankfurt fell by 77.6% year on year to slightly under 2.5 million in the first three months of 2021. It’s an even larger drop of 83.2 percent when compared to the first quarter of 2019, so it’s well positioned to benefit from the rebound in travel. There are a variety of different catalysts. With a new hall and additional aisles at Terminal 1, Frankfurt Airport has been discussing with airlines about boosting airport fees, with the goal of reducing what are often huge queues at security. Fraport has “leveraged the crisis to become much leaner, more efficient, and thus more competitive,” according to CEO Stefan Schulte in a June speech. Chu rates the stock as a Buy with a price target of 74 euros ($88.25). Fraport’s shares has risen 19.1% this year to €58.80, outperforming rivals.
Paris’s airports
(ADP.France), which has increased by 4%. In a May release, Fraport claimed that group revenue in 2021 is likely to be over €2 billion, up 19.7% from €1.67 billion in 2020 but 46% lower than €3.7 billion in 2019.
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