Across a range of interviews and statements in recent days, Fed officials have signaled a wait and see approach on future interest rate moves. That’s in contrast to past statements that made it very clear more interest rate hikes were coming.
Officials in a range of statements and interviews over recent weeks discussed further interest rate hikes in more measured terms, signaling a greater degree of confidence that inflation battle may be starting to draw to a close, though noting that inflation still remains too high.
This marks a shift from the Fed’s most recent set of economic projections and statements over the summer, when most officials viewed another hike in 2023 as likely, with the Fed last raising interest rates on July 26.
Now officials appear to view another hike as only necessary in the event of worrying economic data from this point on, with particular regard to inflation. Of course, that is possible, but it is not certain.
Policy In A Very Good Place
Federal Bank of New York President John Williams expressed some guarded optimism while continuing to emphasize data dependence.
Williams said in a Bloomberg Interview on September 7, that “We’re seeing movement in the right direction” and that “we’ve got policy in a very good place.” Still, he emphasized that, “we’ll have to keep watching the data.”
Wait For The Data
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a CNBC interview on September 5, “There’s nothing that is saying we need to do anything imminent anytime soon, so we can just sit there, wait for the data, see if things continue”. He noted that we’ve seen two good inflation reports in a row, and the Fed can wait and see what the third one looks like. That will come with the Consumer Price Index release on September 13.
On unemployment, Waller noted that despite the monthly increase in August unemployment to 3.8% it wasn’t too different to a year ago when it was 3.7%. Whether or not the Fed needs to hike more “depends on the data”, with the Fed looking for more validation on inflation particularly. Still, he said, “one more hike wouldn’t necessarily throw the economy into recession.”
Powell’s View
Also, in late August Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a broad speech on monetary policy explaining that the Fed’s major concerns were services prices and the housing market. He implied that if both of those trended favorably, then the Fed may not need to raise rates further from current levels.
Wait And See
Overall the more patient, data-dependent tone from Fed officials is a shift from prior statements in prior months that implicitly assumed more policy firming was coming and debated only the extent of it.
Of course, officials are not ruling out a further hike, but increasingly it is being discussed in terms of a single hike in rates and contingent on seeing some discouraging economic data to prompt it.
Policy Moves
Absent some unexpected data before the Fed next sets interest rates on September 20, holding rates steady at the next meeting appears likely. The chance of a November hike may be receding too, though the Fed will be watching incoming data closely.
