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President of the Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) Austan D. Goolsbee noted on Thursday that a single month of inflation data is not enough to hinge an entire monetary policy decision on.
Even with January PCE data showing a good rebound, we should be cautious about extrapolating.
Fed has made substantial progress on long-term inflation.
We need to be careful with arguments suggesting the supply chain is fixed, and we should not expect further benefit in 2024.
Lags on labor supply shocks are probably long.
Fed’s Goolsbee continues to focus on why housing inflation hasn’t come down more.
If substantial productivity growth continues, that would have an impact on monetary policy.
Impacts of supply shock in inflation takes time, suggests benefits of supply chain on disinflation are still to come.
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