Prior Sharp Rally Helps Sets the Stage for Higher Prices
An advance of 8.2% occurred prior to the recent retracement begun from the 2,195-swing high (first rising purple arrow). Momentum began to improve following the breakout of a large symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. The retracement off the 2,195 high took the form of a falling wedge, which is a bullish pattern. A breakout triggered last week and was followed by a retracement from the previous 2,212 peak. Today, we get confirmation for the bull trend with a rally and likely close above the prior record high.
Initial Upside Target of 2,320
The rally prior to the wedge establishes a measured move that can be used to establish a price target from the wedge breakout. A similar swing (second rising purple arrow) from the wedge breakout would put gold around 2,320. Earlier targets include 2,298, which is the target from a large rising ABCD pattern that began from the October 2023 swing low (A). Given that these two targets are above the Fibonacci targets highlighted in red on the chart, it seems likely that they would be exceeded to the upside.
The Fibonacci levels are either projections or extensions of previous swings. Also, note that a top parallel channel line has been added to the chart by duplicating the lower rising trendline and placing it at the top of the December swing high (B). It may assist in assessing higher targets.
Strong Monthly Close to Confirm Long-term Strength
March is coming to an end and gold is set to finish the month at its highest monthly closing price ever. It will provide a new confirmation of strength for the multi-year breakout that is continuing to advance with enthusiasm. A new record monthly close will provide additional credibility to the current advance and should assist in improving demand as the word get out.
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