It’s been a rough start to the year for precious metals and miners, but that may be changing.
In this article:
Troubled banks are reappearing as we near the anniversary of the Silicon Valley Bank failure (March 11, 2023).
A decisive breakout in gold above $2100 would support the beginning of a powerful advance.
Banking Crisis 2.0?
New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) appointed a new CEO effective immediately after acknowledging control issues and a 10x increase in Q4 losses. The stock plunged 28% intraday, hitting the lowest level since 1996.
NYCB Daily Chart
New York Community Bank Corp is down over 50% this year, and it may be the next bank to go into FDIC receivership (pure speculation).
Fear and Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index finished Thursday at 79, and we could see 80+ in the coming weeks. Last July, it reached 83 before stocks rolled over. March is shaping up to be a pivot month once again.
Gold Cycle Indicator
Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 102 on Thursday, supporting a bottom and prevailing uptrend.
Gold
Gold has been consolidating in a triangle formation after spiking to $2152 in early December. Progressive closes above the $2070 area would support a bullish breakout. Another meltdown in banking may be just what the doctor ordered.
Silver
Silver needs a close above $23.00 to form a swing low and set the stage for an attack on $23.50. Until then, the risk of more downside remains.
Platinum
Platinum is dancing near the trendline, threatening a breakdown. Prices need to get back above $920 to promote a bottom.
GDX
Gold Miners gapped higher on Thursday, and prices are trying to bottom (once again). A close above $27.29 is needed to establish a cycle low. Until then, expect more chop.
GDXJ
Gold Junior miners must clear $33.25 to recommend a low.
SILJ
Silver juniors formed a swing low, and the MACD entered a bullish crossover. Prices must close above $8.52 to secure a bottom.
NEM
Newmont formed a swing low and gapped higher. I see the potential for a bottom as long as prices hold above $29.87 in March.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 made a new closing high, and I think we could see a peak in March. The Fear and Greed Index (currently 79) could soon exceed 80, supporting the conditions for a top.
Conclusion
The next big surge in gold may be starting, and the $2100 level is critical. A sustained post-fed breakout would support a notable rally into the third quarter (2024 elections). Gold miners are stupid cheap and could play catch up if gold soars.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For Premium updates and daily market commentary, please visit www.GoldPredict.com.
About the Author
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.
