ROME, ITALY – JULY 03: England’s Harry Kane celebrates with Raheem Sterling after scoring the third goal in the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship Quarter-final match between Ukraine and England at Olimpico Stadium in Rome, Italy on July 03, 2021. Pool/Getty Images/Ettore Ferrari As the Three Lions prepare to face Denmark in the Euro 2020 semi-final at Wembley on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs’ Euro 2020 probability model now predicts that England will win its first major international soccer championship since 1966. On Saturday, Gareth Southgate’s side easily defeated Ukraine to set up England’s first European Championship semi-final in 25 years, while Denmark defeated the Czech Republic 2-1. Italy defeated the world’s top-ranked team, Belgium, to proceed to the other semi-final, where they will face Spain, who narrowly defeated Switzerland in a penalty shootout. After the final quarter-final match, Goldman’s Christian Schnittker wrote a message titled “It’s (Probably) Coming Home,” a reference to The Lightning Seeds’ “Three Lions,” which is often sung cynically by long-suffering England fans. “Italy’s 2–1 win over Belgium surprised our model, which showed Belgium as the most likely team to win the tournament,” Schnittker added. “After defeating Switzerland (1–1, 3–1 (P), Spain will meet Italy in the first semi-final on Tuesday, with our model predicting a narrow Spanish victory. With Belgium eliminated from the competition, our model projects England to win the Euros after their 4-0 victory over Ukraine.” England currently has a 57.7% chance of reaching the final and a 31.9 percent chance of winning the tournament, according to Goldman’s probability model. Spain has 54.6 percent probability of reaching the final and 24.6 percent chance of winning, while Italy has 45 percent chance of reaching the final and 22.4 percent chance of winning. Denmark remains the underdog, with a 42.3 percent chance of reaching the final and a 21.1 percent chance of winning. The model predicts England to win 2-1 against Denmark, with England goalkeeper Jordan Pickford surrendering his first goal of the tournament, and Spain to win 2-1 in extra time against Italy. The model is based on data from over 6,000 matches played since 1980, and it considers a variety of parameters such as squad strength, recent form, match location, and major tournament results. However, when the technology was originally deployed in May, the Wall Street behemoth admitted that all projections are “extremely unpredictable” — such is the essence of the beautiful game. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, UEFA, the governing body of European soccer, has postponed the Euro 2020 competition until June 2021./n
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