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BRAZIL – 04/17/2021: The Textron Company emblem is visible on a… [+] smartphone screen in this photo illustration. (Image courtesy of Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images)
Getty Images/SOPA Images/LightRocket
Despite projections of modest growth in the commercial aviation business, Textron’s (NYSE: TXT) stock has been soaring in recent weeks. Notably, the company’s commercial segment, which accounts for over 70% of total revenues, shrank by 20% last year. The commercial business saw an uptick from Bell and the Industrial section in Q1, but the Aviation segment continued to perform lukewarmly. Textron stock is expected to gain 2.2 percent over the next month (twenty-one trading days) according to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which finds trends in the company’s historical stock price data. This follows a 2.9 percent increase in the previous week (five trading days).
But how do these figures vary if you choose to own Textron shares for a shorter or longer period of time? On the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, you may test the response and many other combinations to see if Textron stock would rise following a decline. You can evaluate the likelihood of recovery across time intervals of a quarter, month, or even a single day!
TRY THE MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE FOR YOURSELF:
TXT stock swings -5 percent over five trading days, then moves an average of 1.6 percent over the next twenty-one trading days, with a 56.4 percent likelihood of a positive return over this period.

Trefis Average Return
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR YOU
Furthermore, a -5 percent move in the stock over 5 trading days has historically resulted in an excess return of -0.1 percent vs the S&P500 over the next 21 trading days, with a 48 percent chance of a positive excess return.
Making Sense of Textron Stock Movements: Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs, and Making Sense of Textron Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is Textron stock’s average return higher following a drop?
Answer: Consider the following two scenarios:
Case 1: Textron’s stock falls by at least 5% in a week.
Case 2: Textron’s stock rises by at least 5% in a week.
Is the average return on Textron shares after Case 1 or Case 2 higher in the following month?
TXT stock performs better following Case 2, with an average return of 1.6 percent over the next month (21 trading days) versus 2.8 percent for Case 1 (where the stock has just experienced a 5 percent loss over the previous week).
In example, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1 percent in Case 1 and barely 0.5 percent in Case 2 over the next 21 trading days, according to our dashboard, which shows the average return for the S&P 500 after a decline or rise.
Try out the Trefis machine learning engine above to discover how Textron stock is likely to react after a given gain or loss over time.
Question 2: Does it pay to be patient?
Answer: If you buy and hold Textron stock, you may anticipate near-term swings to fade away with time, and a long-term favorable trend to favor you – at least if the firm is otherwise healthy.
Overall, facts and Trefis’ machine learning engine estimates show that patience pays off in most stocks!
The following table shows the returns for TXT stock over the next N days after a -5 percent change over the previous 5 trading days, as well as the returns for the S&P500:

Trefis Average Return
You can use the engine to examine how Textron’s table looks following a higher loss in the previous week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: If you wait a bit following a climb, what is the average return?
Answer: As mentioned in the preceding question, the average return after a rise is lower than after a decrease. Surprisingly, if a company has gained in the recent few days, you should avoid short-term investments for most stocks – although TXT stock appears to be an exception to this general rule.
The table below shows TXT’s returns over the next N days after a 5% shift over the previous 5 trading days, as well as the S&P500’s returns:

Trefis Average Return
By adjusting the variables in the charts above, you can test the trend for Textron stock for yourself.
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