International Flavors and Fragrances’ stock (NYSE: IFF), a manufacturer of flavor and fragrance compounds used to improve the flavor or fragrance in a variety of consumer products, has declined by about 15% over the last five trading days (one week) and currently stands at around $96. The company’s stock is down after its guidance fell short of expectations, owing to macroeconomic uncertainty and limited volume growth. International Flavors expects FY 2023 sales of around $12.5 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $12.65 billion. The outlook excludes ~$350 million in sales and ~$50 million in adjusted operating EBITDA for the Savory Solutions divestiture, which is expected to close in Q2. The company expects the 2023 comparable currency-neutral sales growth of close to 6% compared to 9% growth in FY 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2022, IFF’s top line fell 6% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $2.8 billion (missed consensus by $50 million) and its adjusted earnings per share were down 12% y-o-y to 97 cents (beat by $0.01).
Now, is IFF stock poised to decline in the short term, or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a more than 90% chance of a rise in IFF stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of IFF’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
IFF Chance of Rise
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Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using the last ten years data
[1] Returns of -15% or lower over a five-day period on 8 occasions out of 2517 (<1%); Stock rose in the next five days in 3 of these 8 instances (38%)
[2] Returns of -13% or lower over a ten-day period on 37 occasions out of 2518 (1%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 16 of these 37 instances (43%)
[3] Returns of -17% or lower over a twenty-one-day period on 41 occasions out of 2517 (2%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 39 of these 41 instances (95%)
It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. IFF Peers shows how International Flavors and Fragrances stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
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IFF Return Compared with Trefis Multi- Strategy Portfolio
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