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NFP Predictions for the United States:
Payrolls are expected to come in at +700K, up from the poor +559K reading last month, according to consensus projections.
Increased vaccination rates, school resuming in the autumn, and the termination of unemployment insurance benefits all indicate that the US labor market is experiencing upward momentum.
Will the US Dollar’s push to multi-month highs be aided by a rebound in the jobs report? Starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT, we’ll talk about these and other topics in the context of the June US nonfarm payrolls report. You can watch the webcast at the top of this note to participate in live. The focus shifts back to the US labor market. When it comes to the June US NFP data, the major question is whether the US labor market has regained its footing following a stumbling in back-to-back reports in April and May. The April reading came in at +266K versus a forecast of +1000K (or +1M) jobs added, while the May reading came in at +559K versus a forecast of 650K. The sporadic reopening of the US economy does not appear to be deterring forecasts from anticipating a recovery in US labor market expectations, as falling jobless claims and growing vaccination rates speak well for the country’s labor market potential. The consensus forecasts 700,000 new jobs, while the unemployment rate (U3) is expected to fall from 5.8% to 5.7 percent. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate in the United States is expected to be 61.7 percent. Calculator for Job Growth at the Atlanta Fed (June 2021) (Graph 1) Even if the jobs report is positive, the US still has a long way to go before it reaches ‘full employment,’ as it did before to the pandemic. According to the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, the US economy will need to add +740K jobs per month for the next 12 months to return to the pre-pandemic US labor market of 3.5 percent unemployment (U3) and 63.4 percent labor force participation rate. The predicted figures aren’t likely to cause the Fed to change its approach during the summer months; taper talk won’t start in earnest until at least August in Jackson Hole or the September FOMC meeting. Starting at 8:15 EDT/12:15 GMT, we’ll talk about these and other topics in the context of the June US nonfarm payrolls report. You can watch the webcast at the top of this note to participate in live. —- Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist wrote this article.
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