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In EM, the currencies of Mexico and Turkey are outperforming. Economists at ING are still very positive on the Mexican Peso (MXN).
Some banks are looking for a slightly earlier-than-expected rate cut from Banxico at Thursday’s meeting. That is a little earlier than currently priced by the markets and presumably would see the Mexican Peso sell off a little. However, Mexico currently has very high real rates – 6% using current inflation – and a modest reduction looks unlikely to do too much damage.
At the same time, MXN price action shows it is far too early to miss out on 11% implied yields in the Peso on the threat that Donald Trump may or may not be elected president in November.
We are still very positive on the Peso.
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