Rally Above 1.83 Confirms Strength
A rally above 1.83 would trigger a continuation of the rally begun from the recent swing low at 1.59 (C). That low is a second bottom that sets up a potential double bottom bullish reversal pattern. It triggers on a move above the March 5 swing high at 2.01. Until then it is a potential double bottom. The target derived from the pattern is approximately 2.50. If reached, it would put natural gas a little below the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.57.
Eyes Breakout Above Long-term Downtrend Line
If natural gas can close above the 1.83 swing high it will have broken back above the long-term downtrend line, which has represented dynamic resistance since the end of January. That would provide a clear sign that the price of natural gas is continuing to strengthen and that the current rally has the potential to reach higher targets. Subsequently, we will need to see further confirmation of strength to indicate that it can keep rising. The 50-Day MA is a target and it currently sits at 1.91. A daily close above it will indicate improving demand and improve that chance that natural gas keeps rising.
Resistance was seen on the last advance at 2.01 (B). That is right around previous support seen at the prior trend lows in 2023. A daily close above that level would provide a sign that demand is continuing to strengthen on the way up. It triggers a breakout of the double bottom and confirms a continuation of the counter-trend rally. The next higher target would then be the February 1 swing high of 2.17.
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