The June jobs report will be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, July 2 at 12:30 GMT, and as we draw closer to the date, here are the projections from economists and researchers at eight major banks for the impending employment data. Investors predict Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 690,000 in June, down from 559,000 in May, and the unemployment rate to fall to 5.7 percent from 5.8 percent.
As tensions rise ahead of June’s Nonfarm Payrolls numbers, the dollar is hanging on to its gains. However, according to FXStreet Analyst Yohay Elam, the NFP could cause a reversal of dollar gains.
“Following May’s +559K reading, we expect a +700K gain in Nonfarm Payrolls, bringing the unemployment rate to a post-pandemic low of 5.7 percent. Even with a +700K gain, the overall number of Nonfarm Payrolls would still be -6.9K below the February 2020 level.”
“According to recent months, the consensus projection of a 700K increase in nonfarm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.7 percent has plenty of room for surprise. We expect 750K new jobs to be created in June, with even more substantial gains expected in the second half.”
“Consensus has lowered its forecasts from a million or more last month to 700,000 presently. Our housing projection is significantly lower, at 550K, which is similar to last month. If we are closer to the mark than the mainstream, the recent rise in 10-year rates above 1.5 percent may be fleeting. But, since this is payroll, anything may happen, you can’t rule out an upside surprise as well.”
“The improving epidemiological situation allowed for the reopening of large swaths of the economy, which should have boosted hiring in the month. In the meanwhile, the decline in first jobless claims between the May and June reference periods suggests that layoffs may have decreased. Payrolls may have climbed by 800,000 people in the sixth month of the year.”
“Another substantial employment rise (570K) is expected in the US payroll survey, with much of the hiring coming from the hard-hit leisure and hospitality industry.”
“Employers’ recruitment efforts from earlier months should have paid off in terms of drawing workers in June, while students on summer break and fresh graduates may have offered a new pool of labor to draw from. Furthermore, increased pay may have enticed many people back into the workforce, resulting in an increase in hiring to 785K in June. This corresponds to the greater decline in continuing jobless claims recorded during the reference week, but it would still leave a 6.8 million employment deficit compared to pre-covid levels, given unemployment benefit top-ups remain in effect in several large states.”
“Following 559K, we expect an increase of 800K. The Homebase data points to some acceleration in the private sector, while government payrolls are likely to have benefited from fewer than usual end-of-school-year layoffs. “We and the consensus expect another month of solid job growth in the June payrolls report on Friday, with employment likely to rise by more than 500K (ABN: 600K; consensus: 700K), and the unemployment rate perhaps edging lower from the 5.8% reading in May.” (this will depend on how much participation recovers). Despite this, we believe it is too early to expect a meaningful alleviation of labor market constraints in the June report.”/n
