- NZD/USD has taken flight on risk-on markets,
- Commodity complex to possibly support the bird start of week.
NZD/USD is starting out the week flat near 0.70 the figure as the US dollar faced risk-on pressure in closing markets on Friday.
DXY fell from a high of 92.541 to a low of 92.090 while the rally in US Treasuries running out of steam and global stock markets steadying.
”The path forward for sentiment in the near term is unclear,” analysts at ANZ Bank at the start of the week.
”The market seems to be reassessing the extent to which the global economic recovery can continue, particularly with the spread of the Delta variant. Nevertheless, the broad story of NZ outperformance and the possibility of earlier OCR hikes should provide support for NZD.”
Elsewhere, and potentially supportive for the opening sessions, the CRB index added 1% recovering from a strong correction from the monthly highs leaving it in good stead to start the week bullish, supportive of the commodity-linked currencies.
There is nothing major of note for the kiwi for the week ahead but the focus will be on the US Core Consumer Price Index MoM and Retail Sales MoM.
CPI will be most important.
”We once again advise against extrapolating, consistent with Fed officials citing “transitory” factors, but another surge in used vehicle prices, along with reopening-related gains in airfares and hotel rates, likely led to another large rise in the CPI,” analysts at TD Securities said.
”In contrast, retail sales were probably close to flat; they have slowed since their stimulus-powered 11.3% m/m surge in March.”
