Bitcoin’s price has failed to profit from last week’s bullish hammer candlestick.
The price of Ethereum remains above the 2020 rising trend line, but as the week unfolds, price traction is decreasing.
The weekly Anchored VWAP provides strong resistance for XRP, bringing $0.650 support back into play.
The cryptocurrency majors crashed at established barriers this week, putting resistance levels under the microscope. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.733 paralyzed XRP price strength. Bitcoin price retreated from the crucial $35,500 level, Ethereum price stalled at the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level at $2,237, and XRP price strength stalled at the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level at $2,237. Last week’s positive technical developments did not provide enough impetus to securely break over higher resistance levels, delaying attempts to untangle from the current churn.
Last week’s rebound from the key $30,000 price level was the third reminder in the last six weeks of how important that level is for Bitcoin’s future. The velocity with which the market recovered and the strong weekly close signaled the presence and attention of significant investors who were taking advantage of the risk level to continue amassing holdings. Of sure, retail investors were participating in the rally, but only huge investors can produce significant results like the bullish hammer formation shown last week.
The weekly hammer candlestick, a bullish momentum divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), and a complete Elliot five wave down pattern were all crucial moments from last week’s bullish closing. The Mayer multiple, a ratio of Bitcoin’s price to its 200-day SMA, adds to the week’s believability. It means that BTC is undervalued in comparison to its long-term trend.
Last week’s weekly hammer candlestick formation, which placed Bitcoin price above the strategically significant 50-week SMA around $30,452, was undoubtedly a great end to a turbulent week. A trade and daily closure above the hammer high of $35,741 on June 29 triggered the hammer earlier this week. The bullish price movement drove BTC towards the Anchored VWAP at $37,750 and the 50-day SMA at $38,220, indicating that momentum was growing.
However, during the last two days, Bitcoin price has reversed the trend and dropped below the hammer high and the significant $35,500 price level, putting bulls on the defensive once more and positioning the flagship cryptocurrency for another test of $30,000.
To reestablish a positive trajectory for BTC, a daily close above the confluence of the Anchored VWAP and the 50-day SMA is required.
Chart of BTC/USD on a daily basis
On June 22, Bitcoin price did trigger the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern, which indicates a further deviation from the positive outlook. Until BTC trades above the right shoulder high of $41,332, the pattern will remain active. Furthermore, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on June 19, the digital asset confirmed a bearish Death Cross pattern.
As the probability shift from one side to the other, the bulls continue to bear the burden of evidence.
On June 22, the positive response of Ethereum price to outstanding support framed by the 200-day SMA at $1,878, the 2020 rising trend line at $1,793, the 61.8 percent retracement of the March 2020-May 2021 advance at $1,730, and the May 23 low of $1,728 provided a ray of hope for ETH investors and short term speculators.
On June 28, the price of Ethereum closed above the February high of $2,041, signaling the start of a trend toward higher values. On June 30, a daily close above the important 50 percent retracement level of the March 2020-May 2021 advance at $2,237 was followed by two more solid days, including a daily closure above the relevant 50 percent retracement level of the March 2020-May 2021 advance at $2,237. At the time of writing, it appeared that ETH had gained enough traction to challenge the 50-day SMA at $2,567, and then the apex of the symmetrical triangle at $2,730, as well as the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
In early trading today, Ethereum price fell below the crucial February high of $2,041 after yesterday’s 7% drop lost the 50% retracement level. Although ETH is still up 6% for the week, the loss has complicated the near-term price structure and predicted direction.
Chart of ETH/USD on a daily basis
If Ethereum price falls below the 2020 rising trend line at $1,831 and the 61.8 percent retracement level of the March 2020-May 2021 rise at $1,730, it might test the support set by the 2018 high at $1,419, implying a 33 percent drop from current levels.
ETH bull’s incredible assertions, like Bitcoin price, still require extraordinary facts to materialize in a cryptocurrency complex engulfed in indecision.
To recap, the price of XRP has dropped 70% and a spectacular 50% from its June 1 high, liquidating the May 23 low of $0.652, a level bolstered by weekly highs in late 2020 and February 2021. Ripple, on the other hand, achieved three key technical milestones that triggered a 45 percent rebound on June 29: a test of the 78.6 percent retracement of the December 2020-April 2021 advance at $0.555, an undercut of the 50-week SMA at $0.540, and the first oversold reading on the daily RSI since late December 2020.
The 45 percent recovery was impressive, but it lacked the impulsiveness and velocity that characterize major bottoms that would have allowed XRP to overcome the enormous barrier around $0.740-$0.760. As a result, a bear flag pattern formed yesterday, swiftly putting the $0.650 support level into play. Today, Ripple is attempting to maintain the current level.
The measured move of the Ripple bear flag formation is around 36%, implying that XRP price will overcome the 78.6 percent retracement level of $0.555 and the June 22 low of $0.512 before bottoming around the measured move goal of $0.437.
It’s worth noting that XRP price has no meaningful support below the measure move goal, adding to the pressure on optimistic Ripple bettors.
Chart of XRP/USD on a daily basis
At this juncture, the bearish Ripple narrative is compelling, and only a daily close above $0.760, the neckline of a multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, would change the picture.
One probable scenario is for the price of XRP to fall into a trading range between $0.555 and $0.760, resulting in great swing trading conditions due to the massive support and resistance levels and the associated 30-40% profit opportunities. Ripple, on the other hand, is dead money for long-term investors under $0.760.
With a brief technical and on-chain analysis of the XRP price, FXStreet’s analysts assess where Ripple could be headed next./n
