Both Russian and Ukraine need to maintain exports, but Russia’s production and export volumes dwarf those of Ukraine, making Russia an inordinate beneficiary of the grain export deal’s rollover.
Much ado has been made over the latest extension of the grain export deal between Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey (Turkey controls the Straits of Bosphorus and Dardanelles, making it a key player in the negotiations) but there is really no need to fret over whether or not grain will continue flowing out of the Black Sea – it will.
Russia has no interest in disrupting the flow of grains (except from Ukraine) because it is the primary beneficiary of the free flow of goods through the Black Sea. Ukraine has no choice but to support the deal; it has no viable option other than to agree to a waterborne grain deal no matter what the terms. Turkey looks good politically by allowing free passage of grains through the Straits; it collects fees and benefits from a certain economic and political stature from having “negotiated” a grains deal. Everybody wins, but Russia wins biggest of all.
According to the latest USDA figures, Russian will export an estimated 43.5 million metric tonnes of wheat, while Ukraine will export an estimated 13.5 million metric tonnes of wheat – and that’s if the Russians don’t slow down inspections or bomb Ukrainian export facilities – both of which they’ve done with a fair bit of regularity since the war began.
Russia also exports other goods from the Black sea, vital commodities like oil and minerals, all of which rely on the free passage of ships through the Straits controlled by Turkey. Russia will bluff and use rhetoric to gain the public relations edge in negotiations, but it will not stop a grain deal from happening. Turkey and Ukraine have no real choice but to follow along. Talk about duration – 60 days or six months or a year, or whatever – none of those are really real. Russia must have goods flowing through the Black Sea; Ukraine and Turkey are simply incidental beneficiaries. And Russia can do what it has done since the beginning of the war to harm Ukraine, namely slow down inspections of grains to inhibit Ukraine’s export volume capacities, and it can target major export facilities in ports like Odessa to stop the flow of exports completely. “All is fair in love and war…”
Grain will flow through the Black Sea now and at all points in the future; it’s in everyone’s interest and any other outcome is simply out of the question. Any talk stating otherwise is political posturing and nothing more.
