LISBON: The summer tourism season, which is crucial to southern Europe’s businesses, will be less than hot as the Delta coronavirus spreads and travel barriers keep British and other sun-seekers at home. Although the European Union’s COVID-19 travel certificate, which was launched on Thursday (Jul 1), may assist some travelers, arrivals to tourist hotspots from Portugal to Croatia are expected to stay well below usual, putting companies and hospitality jobs at danger.
“The recovery of tourism in Portugal has come to a halt,” said Raul Martins, president of the AHP hotel organization, referring to new travel restrictions imposed by the United Kingdom and Germany, two traditionally lucrative markets for Portugal’s beaches, restaurants, and nightclubs.
The fast-spreading Delta form of coronavirus is causing an increase in cases in Albufeira, a popular tourist destination in the Algarve, and is responsible for more than half of new infections in Lisbon.
READ: The Delta variation is responsible for 90% of new COVID-19 cases in the EU, according to the European Commission.
Add to that the United Kingdom’s decision last month to remove Portugal from its “green list” of travel destinations, as well as Germany’s decision to restrict travel to the country just ahead of the introduction of EU certificates demonstrating a tourist’s double-vaccination or coronavirus-free status.
Even before the German decision and a recent Portuguese law requiring unvaccinated UK visitors to enter quarantine, hotels in the country predicted occupancy rates of only 43% this month and 46% in August. If hotels were asked now, AHP predicted that they would be more pessimistic. Except for a few bright spots, the area is following the same path as the rest of Europe’s south: Better than the lost summer of 2020, but just half the activity expected before to the outbreak. In Greece, where tourism accounts for a fifth of the economy, the central bank this week slashed tourism revenue predictions for 2021 from 50% to 40% of those for 2019, when the country welcomed a record 33 million visitors. The average occupancy rate at hotels in Greece, according to Grigoris Tassios, the head of Greece’s Hoteliers Association, is currently 35 percent to 45 percent, a pace he expects to continue through early July.
“Bookings have definitely stalled due to the uncertainties around COVID, particularly the Delta variation,” he said.
READ: Europe Prepares for Visitors – A Summary of COVID-19 Rules in Key Tourist Destinations
Spain has raised its forecast for tourist numbers this year from 42 million to 45 million, or roughly 54% of 2019 levels, up from 42 million a month ago.
The tourism ministry was particularly enthusiastic about the German market on Wednesday, predicting that 3.8 million German tourists will visit this year, increasing 77 percent from 2019.
Mallorca and the other Balearic islands are benefiting from the UK’s decision on June 30 to enable Britons to vacation there without having to quarantine when they return: Bookings for flights are at 80% of pre-pandemic levels. “They’ve returned since the restrictions on UK holidaymakers were relaxed. “We had reservations comparable to ten days of 2019 in the first 24 hours,” a spokeswoman for Spanish hotel company Melia Hotels stated.
People come to Marinha Beach in Albufeira, Portugal, on June 4, 2021, during the COVID-19 epidemic. (Photo courtesy of REUTERS/Pedro Nunes)
HELPING YOU SAVE THE SUMMER
Holiday industries in northern European countries that cater to sun-seekers are urging governments to find safe methods to expand the number of places available – and quickly.
Britain’s intention to reopen travel in May after more than four months of lockdown has so far disappointed tour operators, with only a few smaller destinations on the “green list” of quarantine-free places.
“This is not the meaningful relaunch of foreign travel that the sector so sorely needs,” said an ABTA representative, who represents 4,300 travel businesses in the United Kingdom.
It is pressing the government to follow through on plans to ease quarantine requirements for fully vaccinated visitors to countries on the “amber list,” such as Spain and France.
“However, this must happen quickly so that businesses can save what is left of the peak summer season, key weeks that account for two-thirds of travel companies’ revenue,” the representative said.
Dealing with sudden rule changes in destination countries – Malta, for example, prohibited British travellers who are not fully vaccinated on Tuesday – is a huge concern for the UK sector.
READ: From September, the United Kingdom will begin arranging for vaccine booster doses.
After Portugal was declared a “virus-variant zone,” a condition that entails a 14-day quarantine for visitors, Germany’s travel industry is demanding explanation. Any moves to include nations like Greece and Spain in that band, industry leaders warned the government this week, would be disastrous. “This current debate about probable future adjustments is unnecessarily alarming people and eroding confidence,” said Thomas Bareiss, the federal tourist commissioner. Some people are still optimistic. According to Tomas Dvorak, an economist at Oxford Economics, southern Europe might recuperate about 85% of its 2019 levels by the end of the year if vaccine campaigns continue to ramp up and overall infections decline. However, a McKinsey assessment released this week provided a bleak picture of the region’s economic impact, predicting that international tourists will not fully recover until 2024 to 2025 in some situations. READ: A business group is urging Biden to ease the EU travel restriction and restore the economy. Portugal is expected to lose roughly €52 billion in revenue between 2020 and 2023, equivalent to a quarter of its total 2019 GDP, with up to 600,000 jobs at risk. In Spain’s situation, the government estimates that foreign tourism would not return until 2025, threatening 4.4 million direct and indirect jobs. It predicted that Italy will benefit from a more resilient domestic tourism sector, allowing the country to recover quicker in 2024. While the EU COVID-19 pass was praised by a United Nations research this week as a rare example of countries harmonising travel arrangements, it will not be enough to save the European summer. Capital Economics stated that it did not remove restrictions for people who were not completely vaccinated, implying that many travelers, including children, will still be required to undertake COVID-19 tests, and that national governments would continue to impose special travel limits. That is a message that is resonating in Portugal, which is still stinging from German travel restrictions. “There are several countries, and each country wants to demonstrate its sovereignty,” said Martins of the AHP. We assume the certificate will be accepted, but certain countries insist on “my house, my regulations.” ADD THIS TO YOUR BOOKMARKS: Our in-depth coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic and its progression For the most up-to-date information on the coronavirus outbreak, download our app or follow us on Telegram: https://cna.asia/telegram/n
