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Brazil Pledges Another ‘Sharp’ Rate Hike to Hit Inflation Target
(Bloomberg) — Discover what’s driving the global economy and what it means for policy makers, businesses, investors and you with The New Economy Daily. Sign up hereBrazil’s central bank lifted its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points and promised another hike of the same size next month in a renewed push to bring inflation back to target.The bank on Wednesday raised the Selic to 3.5%, in line with estimates from all economists in a Bloomberg survey and the guidance given by policy makers at their prior meeting in March. If it makes good on its promise, the bank will have raised borrowing costs by 225 basis points to 4.25% by June.“A partial normalization of the policy rate remains appropriate to keep some degree of monetary stimulus during the economic recovery,” central bank board members in wrote in a statement accompanying their decision. “However, the Committee emphasizes that there is no commitment with this plan, and that future steps of monetary policy could be adjusted to assure the achievement of the inflation target.”The bank, led by its President Roberto Campos Neto, is acting to rein in inflation that’s surged above the target ceiling to a four-year high. Food and fuel costs have jumped in recent months, and the government recently restarted emergency aid that will firm up demand. Put together, analysts see consumer prices above target this year and next despite an incipient recovery.What Bloomberg Economics Says“The central bank tried to reach a compromise: it promised another sharp rate hike of 75 basis points in the next meeting, but warned that it is not ready yet to fully normalize monetary policy. Despite acknowledging the decline in underlying inflation and mentioning — for the first time ever — its dual mandate, we believe that the overall tone of the statement was somewhat hawkish.”–Adriana Dupita, Latin America economistClick here for the full reportThe decision makes room for the real to extend recent gains. The Brazilian currency is the best performer among majors in the past month, up 4.4% amid rising commodity prices. A stronger exchange rate helps fight inflation by making imports less expensive.Real Has Scope to Gain After BCB’s Hiking Signal: Inside Brazil“They are continuing the hawkish tilt,” said Sacha Tihanyi, head of emerging market strategy at TD Securities in Toronto. “Hike aggressively sooner, and then create some breathing space for the real.”Nearing 8%For the first time, policy makers mentioned their secondary mandate of fostering full employment, introduced in the same law that gave the bank its long-sought formal autonomy earlier this year. Yet they offered a positive outlook, saying recent economic indicators have been better than expected despite the pandemic, and predicting uncertainties over growth to gradually return to normal.Last month, President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration started paying out another round of monthly stipends at a total cost of 44 billion reais ($8.2 billion). Lawmakers have recently indicated they will seek an extension of that aid if the government does not accelerate plans for a new social program as the coronavirus continues to spread through the country.Read More: Brazil’s Budget Foreshadows Another Year of Massive SpendingConsumer prices rose 6.17% in the year through mid-April, and many economists see that reading approaching 8% in May. The central bank targets annual inflation at 3.75% this year, with a tolerance range of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.In their statement, policy makers wrote various measures of underlying inflation are already at the top of the range compatible with hitting their target. Complicating matters, commodity prices continue to increase, and higher energy costs are pressuring prices in the short-term.“The central bank is signaling it plans to get to a 5% Selic in 75-basis point hikes, though it leaves the space to change its mind,” said David Beker, chief Brazil economist at Bank of America Corp.(Updates with central bank statement in third paragraph, economist quote in fifth)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
