Topline
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump will compete Saturday in the fourth GOP primary contest of the 2024 election cycle—as Haley vows to continue her longshot candidacy despite a projected double-digit loss in her home state.
Key Facts
Trump leads Haley in South Carolina by 30 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, but Haley leads Trump by 21 points among liberals and moderates, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Tuesday of voters who had already cast their ballots or said they were “very likely” to vote in the primary.
Richland and Charleston, the second- and third-most populous counties in the state, could be ripe territory for Haley, as they’re the only two Trump lost in the 2016 primary.
Only 4% of registered voters participated in South Carolina’s Democratic primary on Feb. 3, leaving open the possibility that a significant share of Democrats or independents could support Haley on Saturday in protest of Trump (voters in South Carolina can cross party lines to cast their ballots in either primary, but not both).
But even if Haley, who served as the state’s governor from 2011-2017, outperforms expectations in South Carolina, her path to securing enough delegates to clinch the nomination is near-impossible as polls in subsequent primary states, including multiple Super Tuesday states on March 5, show Trump winning by wide margins.
South Carolina will award 50 delegates, with 29 delegates going to the candidate who receives the majority of the statewide vote and three to the winners of each of the state’s seven congressional districts.
Trump’s campaign predicts he will win all 50 delegates Saturday, according to a memo Tuesday estimating he could exceed the 1,215-delegate threshold to clinch the nomination after Hawaii, Washington, Mississippi and Georgia hold their primaries on March 12.
What To Watch For
Results are expected shortly after polls close at 7 p.m. ET. The Associated Press called the race for President Joe Biden eight minutes after polls closed in the Democratic primary.
When Is The Next Republican Primary?
Michigan will hold its GOP primary on Feb. 27. Polling in Michigan’s primary has been more sporadic, but surveys from last month and late last year showed Trump with a commanding lead.
Surprising Fact
Newt Gingrich is the only South Carolina GOP primary winner since 1980 who hasn’t gone on to win the party’s nomination.
Big Number
90%. That’s the share of likely South Carolina primary voters who have a favorable view of Trump and also plan to vote for him, compared to 65% with a positive opinion of Haley who said they’ll vote for her in the primary, according to the Suffolk/USA Today poll, showing Trump’s supporters are more loyal to him than they are Haley.
Key Background
Haley is the only remaining competitor to Trump, after biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race following the Iowa contest. Haley finished third in Iowa behind Trump and DeSantis on Jan. 15, lost to Trump by 11 points in New Hampshire on Jan. 23 and lost to “none of these candidates” in Nevada on Feb. 6. On Tuesday, she vowed to stay in the race at least until Super Tuesday on March 5, and has made plans to campaign in Michigan, Utah and Colorado after the South Carolina primary. Haley has said she’s doubling down on her candidacy, not to boost own political career, but because she wants to give Americans an alternative choice between two candidates—Biden and Trump—who voters consistently say they don’t want to see run again. In addition to Haley and Trump, several former candidates and less well-known figures will appear on the South Carolina GOP primary ballot, including DeSantis, Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Texas pastor Ryan Binkley and Florida businessman David Stuckenberg.
