TAIPEI, Taiwan — Due to spent fuel storage capacity issues, Taiwan’s Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant 2 reactor 1 was shut down last week, six months before its scheduled retirement on Dec. 27. The reactor’s shutdown is another step forward in the island’s energy transition, which is a core objective of President Tsai Ing-wen. By mid-2025, her administration hopes to shut down all of Taiwan’s nuclear reactors and replace them with vast swaths of renewable energy and natural gas electricity. Kuosheng reactor 1 is the third of Taiwan’s six reactors to be shut down, with the remaining operating reactors scheduled to shutter one at a time between 2023 and 2025. The 985-megawatt Kuosheng reactor 1 supplied over 3% of Taiwan’s total power, and its decommissioning comes amid rising power demand and capacity restrictions, which have already resulted in two blackouts. In a phone interview, Taipower spokesman Albert Chang stated that the reactor’s loss will have no influence on power supply margins. “We’ve known about the shutdown for months, and Taipower has prepared for it” by commissioning a new 500MW combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) at Chiahuei unit 2 as well as 500MW of new solar PV projects. “We are confident that we will be able to provide uninterrupted power supply this summer,” he said. However, the Chiahuei 2 CCGT unit, when paired with solar PV, will struggle to match the power provided by Kuosheng reactor 1. Before beginning to reduce the reactor’s production as it approached its conclusion in March, Taipower, Taiwan’s only nuclear operator, had operating the reactor at 101.94 percent capacity, generating 710,131 megawatt hours (22,907MWh) daily. In Taiwan, solar power generates at a much lower capacity of only 15%, amounting to only 1,800MWh per day. The Chiahuei 2 CCGT unit can operate at 98 percent capacity, but due to its reduced size, it can only generate 11,760MWh per day. The replacement power’s combined output would only be 13,560MWh per day, leaving a 40 percent shortfall. “It’s just not enough to meet predicted record-high electricity consumption this summer,” said Yeh Tsung-Kuang, a nuclear engineering professor at National Tsing-Hua University. “It’s unavoidable that there will be power interruptions and rationing for the rest of the summer.” This void will almost certainly be supplied by CCGT-generated electricity, raising concerns about energy security and greenhouse gas emissions. Last year, nuclear power generated 12.7 percent of the electricity on Taiwan Power Company’s (Taipower) grid, while coal generated 36.4 percent (plus 1.7 percent for coal-fired cogeneration). Taiwan wants to cut coal-fired power generation to 30% by constructing 27 gigawatts of renewables to meet 20% of demand and growing natural gas-fired power to meet 50% of demand, in addition to removing nuclear power generation. The energy transition program aims to reduce Taiwan’s carbon footprint and position the island as a green energy leader in Asia, in addition to accomplishing the ruling DPP’s vision of a “nuclear free homeland.” The government expects the energy transition to generate NT$1 trillion (US$36 billion) in investments, NT$1.2 trillion (US$43.3 billion) in output value, and 20,000 job opportunities by 2025, bolstered by a series of legislative and policy initiatives, including amendments to the Electricity Act that legally mandated the elimination of nuclear power by 2025 as well as liberalizing electricity sales. In her opening remarks at EnergyTaiwan, Taiwan’s main renewable energy trade event, Tsai praised Taiwan as “a leading center of green energy in the Asia-Pacific region.” Local opposition, government infighting, and the impact of the pandemic have all hampered the deployment of renewable energy and natural gas capacity. Renewable energy generated only 5.8% of total electricity in 2020, and the amount of additional solar and offshore wind capacity installed since then has been insignificant. Solar power currently has 6.12 GW of installed capacity and will require around 14 GW more by 2025 to fulfill its target. Outside of China, Taiwan has the largest offshore wind business in Asia, although early projects were harmed by the epidemic, and most analysts believe Taiwan will not reach its 5.7GW objective until 2026 or 2027. Furthermore, while Taiwan is erecting large new natural gas turbines all across the island, these are wholly reliant on LNG imports. Taiwan’s LNG import capacity is already at capacity, and environmentalists have been vocal in their opposition to new facilities. On Aug. 28, voters will be asked to decide whether or not to build a third LNG facility. Even if it succeeds, the project will be postponed until after 2025. Nuclear power must be phased down by a certain date that cannot be postponed. Although a referendum approved in 2018 removed the legal requirement to phase out nuclear power in the absence of appropriate used nuclear-fuel storage capacity, extending the life of the reactors is technically impossible. Another referendum on the ballot on Aug. 28 will ask voters to accept the controversial Lungmen Nuclear Power Plant 4 project being restarted, but this, too, will take years to complete. It is almost guaranteed that all nuclear power generating will be phased out by May 17, 2025, when the last reactor’s operating license expires. Meanwhile, demand for electricity continues to climb. Demand climbed by 4.5 percent from January to April this year, following a 2.08 percent increase the previous year. Demand is expected to rise 2.5 percent or more annually through 2027, according to the Bureau of Energy. Taiwan’s increasing exports made it one of the world’s best-performing economies in 2020, with GDP growth reaching 8% in the first quarter of 2021. Despite the current pandemic-induced lockdown, the Chunghua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) predicts that Taiwan would expand 4.8 percent in 2021 and 3.23 percent in 2022. “We expect to separate economic growth from electricity consumption,” said BOE Deputy Director-General Lee Chun-li, “but we don’t see such decoupling happening right now.” Last month, Taiwan saw the effects of insufficient electricity output firsthand when peak demand reached new highs. On May 13 and 17, there were two blackouts. Due to yearly maintenance planned in expectation of low demand during the rainy season in April and May, large amounts of LNG capacity were taken offline. However, due to a 100-year drought, the rains failed to arrive, and Taipower struggled to maintain appropriate reserve margins.
On September 24, 2020, wind turbines line a beach near the Linkou Power Plant, a coal-fired power plant run by Taiwan Power Co. in New Taipei City, Taiwan. courtesy of Getty Images
Tsai has committed to put Taiwan on a road to net-zero emissions by 2050, putting Taiwan on par with 59 other countries. According to data from the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration, the island has made progress in lowering emissions since they peaked at 300.8 million metric tons in 2007, declining 1.52 percent to 296.24 million metric tons in 2018. However, because renewable energy development has halted, the power supply gap produced by the loss of nuclear power will most likely be replaced by natural gas-fired power, or even worse, coal. Nuclear power emits very little directly, but it is predicted to emit 400 grams per kilowatt hour when construction and uranium mining are factored in. Combined cycle gas turbine emissions are estimated to be 412 kilograms per MWh by the US Environmental Protection Agency, whereas coal emits 1,000 kilos per MWh. Natural gas would add 8,696 tons per day to Taiwan’s carbon emissions, or 3.17 million tons per year, whereas coal would add 7.7 million tons per year. This would not only cause a delay in Taiwan’s net-zero goals, but it would also have an impact on trade. The European Union is considering implementing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, a levy that would penalize countries who are lagging behind in reducing emissions. With an annual trade value of around 50.5 billion eurodollars, the EU is Taiwan’s fourth-largest export destination (1.68 trillion New Taiwan dollars). “If the EU implements carbon tariffs, it will adversely harm Taiwan’s export competitiveness,” a CIER economist who was not authorized to speak to the media said. Taiwan’s heavy industries, such as semiconductors, petrochemicals, and steel, utilize 37.47 percent of the island’s electricity and are made possible by Taiwan’s low electricity prices. According to Taipower data, average electricity rates in Taiwan are NT$2.5 ($0.09) per kWh, among the lowest in the world and far below the price Taipower pays for renewable energy, which is NT$4.87 per kWh. Experts believe that raising costs would encourage energy conservation and refocus Taiwan’s economic policies, progressively phasing out less competitive industries. “Power pricing should represent the cost of the energy shift,” said Chien Ker-Hsuan, an assistant professor at National Tsing Hua University’s Institute of Technology Management. Deputy Director-General Lee of the BOE, on the other hand, is upbeat. He noted that “there have been significant delays [in the energy transition], primarily owing to the pandemic.” “However, the pandemic will pass, and we are optimistic about 2025.”/n
Read More
