Bitcoin’s price is up 1.66 percent this week, but weekly volume is at its lowest since the beginning of April.
The price of Ethereum rises 17.05 percent this week, marking the highest week since the beginning of April, although volume falls.
The price of XRP has increased by 7.28 percent this week and is holding at the important $0.65 level, although weekly volume is at its lowest since October 2020.
As the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) converges, the bitcoin price draws a new line in the sand between $35,000 and $35,000. The 50-day SMA is about to collide with Ethereum’s price, which is now trading around the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020-May 2021 rise around $2,237. After triggering a rising wedge formation on July 1, the price of XRP has slipped into a new trading range of $0.650-$0.740.
Bitcoin price made a spectacular comeback from the dominant $30,000 level two weeks ago, marking the third time in the preceding six weeks that it had done so. BTC appeared to be conveying a keen interest and robust demand from renowned investors due to the pace of the rebound and a solid weekly close in the form of a bullish hammer candlestick pattern.
The complete Elliot five wave down pattern on the daily Relative Strength (RSI) and the bullish momentum divergence on the daily Relative Strength (RSI), together with the Mayer Multiple demonstrating that BTC was cheap relative to its long-term trend, added to the optimism.
Despite triggering the hammer pattern with a trade and daily close above $35,741 on June 29, Bitcoin price failed to capitalize on the momentum and ended the week with a 1.66 percent gain. The weekly volume was at its lowest level since early April, indicating a lack of a bid and a return to uncertainty.
Since June 22, Bitcoin has made higher lows, forming a modest ascending trendline, while attempting to gain traction above $35,000-$35,500, resulting in slightly higher highs. Overall, the price action has been corrective, with the 50-day SMA currently converging, putting downward pressure on BTC and creating a new technical hurdle.
Before a fresh long position may be considered, the price of Bitcoin must close above the 50-day SMA at $36,359 and the anchoring VWAP from October 21, 2020, at $37,732.
Chart of BTC/USD on a daily basis
It’s worth repeating that on June 22, the price of Bitcoin triggered the neckline of a broader head-and-shoulders pattern. The pattern will continue to be active until BTC trades above the $41,332 right shoulder high. Furthermore, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on June 19, the digital asset confirmed a bearish Death Cross pattern.
On June 28, the odds were stacked in favor of even further gains. Still, the bulls have the burden of proof this week, as BTC has lost conviction and momentum, both of which are necessary to overcome the increasing barrier between $35,000-$35,500. For the time being, the Bitcoin price is fluctuating like quicksand.
On June 22, the positive response of Ethereum price to outstanding support framed by the 200-day SMA at $1,878, the 2020 rising trend line at $1,793, the 61.8 percent retracement of the March 2020-May 2021 advance at $1,730, and the May 23 low of $1,728 provided a ray of hope for ETH investors and short term speculators.
On June 28, the price of Ethereum closed above the February high of $2,041, signaling the start of a trend toward higher values. Since capturing $2,041, ETH has closed twice over the 50% retracement level of the March 2020-May 2021 climb at $2,237, giving it a 17.05 percent gain this week.
As the 50-day SMA swiftly converges with ETH, today’s Ethereum price decrease challenges the 50% retracement level once more, developing a new roadblock for the international settlement cryptocurrency.
Overall, the price of Ethereum has been a bullish divergence from the price of Bitcoin. Nonetheless, the fundamental issue of conviction exhibited by volume continues to be an issue. It raises the possibility that the better price structure is just a temporary reprieve before the ETH slump resumes.
Important technical milestones for the bullish narrative would be a daily closure above the 50-day SMA at $2,411 and the upper trend line of a new descending triangle around $2,640.
Chart of ETH/USD on a daily basis
If Ethereum price falls below the 2020 rising trend line at $1,885 and the 61.8 percent retracement level of the March 2020-May 2021 rise at $1,730, it might test the support set by the 2018 high at $1,419, implying a 36 percent drop from current levels.
Last week, Ethereum pricing stood out among the crypto heavyweights on a relative basis. Nonetheless, the importance of seeing volume confirmation and robust closes over dominant resistance levels should not be overlooked. Furthermore, descending triangle patterns are considered continuation forms, implying that the price of Ethereum may eventually resolve to the negative.
To recap, the price of XRP has dropped 70% and a spectacular 50% from its June 1 high, liquidating the May 23 low of $0.652, a level bolstered by weekly highs in late 2020 and February 2021. Ripple, on the other hand, achieved three key technical milestones that triggered a 45 percent rebound on June 29: a test of the 78.6 percent retracement of the December 2020-April 2021 advance at $0.555, an undercut of the 50-week SMA at $0.540, and the first oversold reading on the daily RSI since late December 2020.
The 45 percent recovery was impressive, but it lacked the impulsiveness and velocity that characterize major bottoms that would have allowed XRP to overcome the enormous barrier around $0.740-$0.760. As a result, on July 1, a rising wedge formation triggered, bringing the $0.650 support level in play. For the past four days, Ripple has maintained the critical status.
The measured move of the Ripple rising wedge pattern is over 30%, implying that XRP price will push through the 78.6% retracement level of $0.555 and the June 22 low of $0.512 before bottoming at around the measure move objective of $0.477.
It’s worth noting that the XRP price has no visible support below the measured move target, putting optimistic Ripple traders under more pressure.
Chart of XRP/USD on a daily basis
Ripple need a daily close above $0.760 to unravel the dominant bearish narrative due to the clarity of the price structure from the June 22 low and the definite resistance in the region of $0.740-$0.760.
Due to the fortified support and resistance levels, as well as the attractive 30-40 percent profit opportunities that lie between, an emerging scenario that has been discussed in the past is for the XRP price to fall into a trading range between $0.555 and $0.760, thereby offering potent trading conditions for swing traders. Ripple is dead money for long-term investors under $0.760.
With a brief technical and on-chain analysis of the XRP price, FXStreet’s analysts assess where Ripple could be headed next./n
