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3 Minutes to Read (Reuters) – LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC maintained its projection for a significant rebound in global oil demand in the second half of 2021, predicting that demand would climb at pre-pandemic levels in 2022, driven by growth in the United States, China, and India. PHOTO FROM THE FILE: The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) logo is displayed outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, ahead of the OPEC and non-OPEC meeting on December 6, 2019. Leonhard Foeger/REUTERS In its monthly report released on Thursday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted that demand would climb by 3.4 percent to 99.86 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, and would average more over 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022. “Global economic growth in 2022 is expected to be strong,” OPEC added. “These include enhanced COVID-19 containment, particularly in emerging and developing countries, where oil demand is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2022.” The research confirms OPEC’s belief that demand will rebound strongly following the pandemic, allowing the organisation and its allies to loosen production limitations imposed in 2020 even further. According to some observers, global oil demand may have peaked in 2019. According to OPEC’s report, demand in 2019 averaged 99.98 million bpd. OPEC also maintained its forecast for a 5.95 million bpd increase oil demand in 2021. Oil demand in China and India is expected to approach pre-pandemic levels next year, according to OPEC. It predicted that the United States would contribute the most to 2022 demand increase, while its oil consumption would be slightly lower than in 2019. The world economy is anticipated to grow at a slower rate of 4.1 percent next year, down from 5.5 percent in 2021, OPEC warned, with the prognosis “dependent mostly on COVID-19-related events.” Following the announcement of the OPEC report, oil was trading below $74 per barrel. With the support of supply restrictions by OPEC and its partners, known as OPEC+, the price has risen by more than 40% this year. OPEC’s output increased, and rivals, particularly US shale producers, are expected to supply more in 2022, according to the analysis. In April, OPEC+ agreed to gradually reduce output cuts from May to July. According to the statistics released on Thursday, OPEC output increased by 590,000 barrels per day in June to 26.03 million barrels per day. After talks were disrupted by a dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, OPEC+ has yet to decide on its intentions for the rest of 2021. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that the two had reached an agreement. According to the analysis, OPEC’s rivals’ production will increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2022 as higher prices encourage investment. After contracting this year, OPEC expects shale oil output in the United States to rise by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2022. The extra barrels will reduce demand for OPEC crude next year, but OPEC still expects the world to need 28.7 million barrels per day from its members in 2021, up 1.1 million barrels per day from 2021, allowing for more OPEC output in principle. Edmund Blair did the editing./nRead More

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